No hike from the RBA
BY Janne Muta|July 4, 2023
The Reserve Bank of Australia left the rates unchanged. The market pricing prior to today's decision indicated a 63% probability of no change, so the decision didn’t come as a surprise. Additionally, the RBA made minimal changes to its language and maintained the existing forward guidance. However, the RBA did emphasize that this decision is aimed at reassessing the current situation.
On a short trading day before a holiday, the stock and bond markets closed early with little change in equity prices due to a lack of economic data. The consumer discretionary sector received a boost from Tesla's positive delivery and production figures. Looking ahead, there will be a focus on upcoming data releases, including the US Services PMI report and the June jobs report, which will provide insights into the health of the US labour market. Monthly NFP gains are expected to moderate (+224K, 339K previous), leading to a slight increase in the unemployment rate. Despite some deceleration in the broader economy, the labour market has remained strong, benefiting consumers and supporting GDP growth and financial market performance in 2023.
EURAUD is bearish below 1.6434 and could trade down to 1.6260. Above 162.64 the market might trade to 1.6460.
BTCUSD remains bullish above 29 514. Below the level, the market could move to 28 800. The market has been supported by the news related to BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF application’s possible acceptance by the SEC.
NZDUSD is bullish above 0.6140. Below the level, look for a move to 0.6116.
The Next Main Risk Events
- CNY Caixin Services PMI
- USOIL OPEC Meetings
- USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
- AUD Trade Balance
- USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- USD Unemployment Claims
- USD ISM Services PMI
- USD JOLTS Job Openings
- CHF Foreign Currency Reserves
- GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
- CAD Employment Change
- CAD Unemployment Rate
- USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
- USD Non-Farm Employment Change
- USD Unemployment Rate
- CAD Ivey PMI
- EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
For more information and details see the TIOmarkets economic calendar.
Chief Market Analyst
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Janne Muta holds an M.Sc in finance and has over 20 years experience in analysing and trading the financial markets.
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