Weekly market analysis from 6th January 2025
BY TIO Staff
|يناير ٧, ٢٠٢٥The first full trading week of the year is set to deliver a series of impactful economic data releases across major markets. Monday started with Germany's preliminary CPI m/m figures, which showed a rebound to 0.4%, exceeding forecasts of 0.3% and recovering strongly from the previous -0.2%.
Tuesday's focus shifted to inflation and employment data, with Switzerland’s CPI m/m aligned with expectations at -0.1%. In the US, market attention turns to the ISM Services PMI, anticipated to rise to 53.5 from the previous 52.1, while JOLTS Job Openings are forecast at 7.73M, marginally lower than the prior 7.74M.
Wednesday brings critical updates starting early with Australia’s CPI y/y, expected to edge up to 2.2% from 2.1%. In the US, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is forecast to slow to 136K from 146K, while weekly Unemployment Claims are projected to rise slightly to 214K from 211K. Later in the day, the FOMC Meeting Minutes will provide valuable insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance.
Friday takes center stage with Canada’s Employment Change expected to moderate to 25.2K from 50.5K and the Unemployment Rate ticking up to 6.9% from 6.8%. In the US, labor market data will dominate, with Average Hourly Earnings m/m forecast to ease to 0.3% from 0.4%, Non-Farm Employment Change expected to decline to 159K from 227K, and the Unemployment Rate anticipated to remain steady at 4.2%.
With these key data points on the horizon, the financial markets are primed for a dynamic start to the new year, setting the tone for trading in January.
Here are 3 markets to watch this week
All technical analysis is provided by Trading Central
EUR/CAD
If EUR/CAD remains below the pivot point at 1.5116, the pair could potentially decline to the 1.4538 or 1.4368 range. Alternatively, if the price breaks above the pivot point at 1.5116, there may be potential upside with targets at 1.5400 and 1.5569. The RSI is bearish, sitting below the neutrality level of 50, suggesting continued downside momentum.
CAD/CHF
If CAD/CHF remains above the pivot point at 0.6209, the pair could potentially rise to the 0.6451 or 0.6518 range. Alternatively, if the price breaks below the pivot point at 0.6209, there may be potential downside with targets at 0.6096 and 0.6029. The RSI is bullish, sitting above 50, and the MACD is positive and above its signal line, indicating a favorable upward momentum.
USD/CAD
If USD/CAD remains above the pivot point at 1.4000, the pair could potentially rise to the 1.4660 or 1.4810 range. Alternatively, if the price breaks below the pivot point at 1.4000, there may be potential downside with targets at 1.3820 and 1.3600. The RSI is bullish, signaling further upside momentum and supporting the possibility of continued gains.
This week's high impact market events
The following economic events and data releases have the potential to cause considerable price movements, thereby offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed and leverage our economic calendar to access real-time data and analysis as these key events unfold.
Time (GMT +3)
Monday 6th January
| Time | Currency | Event |
| All Day | EUR | German Prelim CPI m/m |
Tuesday 7th January
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 9:30 AM | CHF | CPI m/m |
| 5:00 PM | USD | ISM Services PMI |
| USD | JOLTS Job Openings |
Wednesday 8th January
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 2:30 AM | AUD | CPI y/y |
| 3:15 PM | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
| 3:30 PM | USD | Unemployment Claims |
| 9:00 PM | USD | FOMC Meeting Minutes |
Friday 10th January
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 3:30 PM | CAD | Employment Change |
| CAD | Unemployment Rate | |
| USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | |
| USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | |
| USD | Unemployment Rate |
How will you trade the markets this week?
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