Equity markets got spooked by the two recent rate hikes from the RBA and the BOC. Bonds sold off sending the yield-sensitive Nasdaq lower. Investors are starting to think the Fed might hike n...

Fed rate hike expectations increase

Major US indices gained modestly yesterday with S&P 500 (0.33%) and Nasdaq Composite (0.36%) reaching fresh closing highs for the year. Financial stocks led the market, with regional banks re...

Regional banks recover

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised the markets with a 25 basis points hike. The central bank acknowledges that while inflation has peaked, it still remains at elevated levels. The ...

RBA hikes as wages rise

EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change

Crude Runs refer to the volume of crude oil consumed by refineries.

EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change

EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change

EIA Gasoline Production Change

EIA Distillate Stocks Change

Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in storage at the Cushing, Oklahoma during the past week.

EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change

Stocks of crude oil refer to the weekly change of the crude oil supply situation.

EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

Stocks of gasoline refers to the weekly change of the gasoline supply situation.

EIA Gasoline Stocks Change

EIA Crude Oil Imports Change

Initial jobless claims have a big impact in financial markets because unlike continued claims data which measures the number of persons claiming unemployment benefits, Initial jobless claims measures new and emerging unemployment.

Initial Jobless Claims

Jobless Claims 4-week Average

Continuing Jobless Claims refer to actual number of unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits who filed for unemployment benefits at least two weeks ago.

Continuing Jobless Claims

Natural Gas Stocks Change refers to the weekly change of the natural gas supply situation.

EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change

8-Week Bill Auction

4-Week Bill Auction

US Crude Oil Rigs refer to the number of active US rigs drilling for oil in a given week.

Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

3-Month Bill Auction

6-Month Bill Auction

The Johnson Redbook Index is a sales-weighted of year-over-year same-store sales growth in a sample of large US general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. Same-store sales are sales in stores continuously open for 12 months or longer. By dollar value, the Index represents over 80% of the equivalent 'official' retail sales series collected and published by the US Department of Commerce. Redbook compiles the Index by collecting and interpreting performance estimates from retailers. The Index and its sub-groups are sales-weighted aggregates of these estimates. Weeks are retail weeks (Sunday to Saturday), and equally weighted within the month.

Redbook YoY

API Crude Oil Stock Change

In the US, the MBA Weekly Mortgage Application Survey is a comprehensive overview of the nationwide mortgage market and covers all types of mortgage originators, including commercial banks, thrift institutions and mortgage banking companies. The entire market is represented by the Market Index which covers all mortgage applications during the week, whether for a purchase or to refinance. The survey covers over 75% of all US retail residential mortgage applications.

MBA Mortgage Applications

MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate is average 30-year fixed mortgage lending rate measured during the reported week and backed by the Mortgage Bankers Association.

MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate

The MBA Weekly Mortgage Application Survey is a comprehensive overview of the nationwide mortgage market and covers all types of mortgage originators, including commercial banks, thrift institutions and mortgage banking companies. The entire market is represented by the Market Index which covers all mortgage applications during the week. This includes all conventional and government applications, all fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs), all adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), whether for a purchase or to refinance.

MBA Mortgage Market Index

MBA Purchase Index

MBA Mortgage Refinance Index

Car Production YoY

The Nationwide house price index is an indicator of trends in UK house prices. The index is calculated based on owner occupier house purchase transactions involving a mortgage. Buy to let and cash purchases are not included.

Nationwide Housing Prices YoY

Nationwide Housing Prices MoM

The ADP National Employment Report measures levels of non-farm private employment. The Report is based on the actual payroll data from about 25 million employees and is produced by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.

ADP Employment Change

The Chicago PMI (ISM-Chicago Business Barometer) measures the performance of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sector in the Chicago region. The Index is computed from five weighted raw indexes: Production (0.25), New Orders (0.35), Order Backlog (0.15), Employment (0.10), and Supplier Deliveries (0.15) and then seasonally adjusted to support month-to-month comparisons. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion; below 50 represents a contraction; while 50 indicates no change. Chicago PMI is released one day before the ISM Manufacturing Index.

Chicago PMI

The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops. When a seller accepts a sales contract on a property, it is recorded into a Multiple Listing Service (MLS) as a "pending home sale." The majority of pending home sales become home sale transactions, typically one to two months later. The National Association of Realtors collects pending home sales data from MLSs and large brokers. Altogether, data from over 100 MLSs & 60 large brokers is received providing a large sample size covering 50% of the existing home sales sample. This is equal to 20 percent of all transactions.

Pending Home Sales MoM

Pending Home Sales YoY

In the United States, job quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. The quits rate is computed by dividing the number of quits by employment and multiplying that quotient by 100.

JOLTs Job Quits

In the United States, job openings refer to all positions that are open (not filled) on the last business day of the month. Job openings are part of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The survey collects data from around 16400 nonfarm establishments including retailers and manufacturers, as well as federal, state, and local government entities in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The JOLTS assesses the unmet demand for labor in the U.S. labor market and gained attention in 2014 as favorite labor market indicator of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.

JOLTs Job Openings

In the United States, Total Vehicle Sales measures the annualized number of new vehicles sold domestically in the reported month.

Total Vehicle Sales

Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index measures the performance of the manufacturing sector and is derived from a survey of 600 industrial companies. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is based on five individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders (30 percent), Output (25 percent), Employment (20 percent), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15 percent) and Stock of Items Purchased (10 percent), with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month; below 50 represents a contraction; while 50 indicates no change.

S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final

Challenger Job-Cut Report provides information on the number of announced corporate layoffs by industry and region.

Challenger Job Cuts

Core PCE Price Index MoM

In the United States, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index provides a measure of the prices paid by people for domestic purchases of goods and services, excluding the prices of food and energy. The core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. The central bank has a 2 percent target.

Core PCE Price Index YoY

In the United States, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index provides a measure of the prices paid for domestic purchases of goods and services. While the Consumer Price Index assumes a fixed basket of goods and uses expenditure weights that do not change over time for several years, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index uses a chain index and resorts on expenditure data from the current period and the preceding period (known as Fisher Price Index).

PCE Price Index MoM

PCE Price Index YoY

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the primary measure of consumer spending on goods and services in the U.S. economy. 1 It accounts for about two-thirds of domestic final spending, and thus it is the primary engine that drives future economic growth. PCE shows how much of the income earned by households is being spent on current consumption as opposed to how much is being saved for future consumption. PCE also provides a comprehensive measure of types of goods and services that are purchased by households. Thus, for example, it shows the portion of spending that is accounted for by discretionary items, such as motor vehicles, or the adjustments that consumers make to changes in prices, such as a sharp run-up in gasoline prices.

Personal Spending MoM

Personal Income refers to the income that persons receive in return for their provision of labor, land, and capital used in current production, plus current transfer receipts less contributions for government social insurance.

Personal Income MoM

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI is compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in a panel of around 800 manufacturers. The headline figure is the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which is a weighted average of the following five indices: New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%) and Stocks of Purchases (10%). For the PMI calculation the Suppliers’ Delivery Times Index is inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction to the other indices. The index varies between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease.

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), the report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction and the negative economic direction, and the diffusion index. A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining.

ISM Manufacturing Prices

ISM Manufacturing New Orders

ISM Manufacturing Employment

Construction Spending refers to monthly estimates of the total dollar value of construction work done on new structures or improvements to existing structures for private and public sectors each month in the United States. In 2016, private construction spending accounted for 75 percent of total spending and public for 25 percent. Spending in non-residential construction represented 60 percent of total and residential accounted for 40 percent.

Construction Spending MoM

ISM Manufacturing PMI

New Car Sales YoY

The UK Composite PMI is a weighted average of the Manufacturing Output Index and the Services Business Activity Index.

S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI Final

The S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is based on data collected from companies in the transport and communication sector, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT and hotels and restaurants. The index tracks variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. A reading above 50 indicates that the services sector is generally expanding; below 50 indicates that it is generally declining.
.

S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI Final

In the United States, the S&P Global Composite PMI Output Index, which is a weighted average of the Manufacturing Output Index and the Services Business Activity Index, tracks business trends across both manufacturing and service sectors. The index is based on data collected from a representative panel of over 800 companies and follows variables such as sales, new orders, employment, inventories and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in business activity while below 50 points to contraction.

S&P Global Composite PMI Final

The S&P Global US Services PMI is compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to a panel of around 400 service sector companies. The sectors covered include consumer (excluding retail), transport, information, communication, finance, insurance, real estate and business services. The index tracks variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices; and varies between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease. The headline figure is the Services Business Activity Index, which is a diffusion index calculated from a question that asks for changes in the volume of business activity compared with one month previously. The Services Business Activity Index is comparable to the Manufacturing Output Index.

S&P Global Services PMI Final

The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries) this report shows the percentage reporting each response, and the diffusion index. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy in that index is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Orders to the service producers make up about 90 percent of the US economy.

ISM Services Business Activity

ISM Services Prices

ISM Services New Orders

ISM Services Employment

The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries) this report shows the percentage reporting each response, and the diffusion index. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy in that index is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Orders to the service producers make up about 90 percent of the US economy.

ISM Services PMI

Factory orders report is compiled from results of "Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) survey"  and shows the value of new factory orders for both durable (50% of total orders) and non-durable goods. The survey is usually released a week after durable goods orders report. Factory orders excluding transportation account for approximately 84 percent of total orders.

Factory Orders ex Transportation

Factory orders report is compiled from results of "Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) survey"  and shows the value of new factory orders for both durable (50% of total orders) and non-durable goods. The survey is usually released a week after durable goods orders report. 

.

Factory Orders MoM

The BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor measures changes in the actual value of retail sales from a sample of retailers. The Monitor measures the value of spending and hence does not adjust for price changes. If prices are rising, sales volumes will increase by less than sales values. In times of price deflation, sales volumes will increase by more than sales values. Retailers report the value of their sales and sales in the equivalent week a year ago. These figures are reported both in total and on a ‘like-for-like’ basis. The percentage increase in the value of sales on a ‘like-for-like’ basis removes the effect of the expansion of retail floor space by the retailers concerned on their sales total. Due to the sample being biased towards large retailers, the ‘like-for-like’ increase usually provides a more accurate guide to general spending patterns, though it will be biased downwards as an estimate of the growth rate for retail as a whole.

BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY

In the United Kingdom, the Markit / Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply Purchasing Managers Index measures the performance of the construction sector and is derived from a survey of 170 construction companies.

S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI

The Logistics Managers Survey is a monthly study aimed a revealing the status of US logistics activity. The LMI score is a combination of eight unique components that make up the logistics industry, including: inventory levels and costs, warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices, and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The LMI is calculated using a diffusion index, in which any reading above 50 percent indicates that logistics is expanding; a reading below 50 percent is indicative of a shrinking logistics industry. 
.

LMI Logistics Managers Index Current

The United States is the world's third biggest exporter, yet exports account only for 10 percent of GDP. In 2022, the main exports were industrial supplies (38 percent of the total), capital goods (29 percent), consumer goods (14 percent), automotive vehicles (8 percent), and food, feeds, and beverages (8 percent). Main export partners were Canada (18 percent of total exports), Mexico (16 percent), China (7 percent), Japan (4.5 percent), the United Kingdom (4 percent), and Germany (3.5 percent).

Exports

The United States is the world's second-biggest importer. In 2022, the main imports were consumer goods (27 percent), capital goods (26 percent), and industrial supplies (25 percent) followed by automotive vehicles, parts and engines (12 percent), and foods, feeds and beverages (6 percent). Shipments from China represented 17 percent of the total imports followed by Mexico (14 percent), Canada (13 percent), Japan (4.5 percent), and Germany (4.5 percent).

Imports

The United States has been running consistent trade deficits since 1976 due to high imports of oil and consumer products. In 2022, the biggest trade deficits are recorded with China, Mexico, Vietnam, Canada, Germany, Japan, and Ireland, and the biggest trade surpluses with the Netherlands, Hong Kong, Brazil, Singapore, Australia, and United Kingdom. Canada is the top trading partner, accounting for 15 percent of total trade, followed by Mexico (14 percent) and China (13 percent).

Balance of Trade

The Halifax House Price Index is the UK's longest running monthly house price series with data covering the whole country going back to January 1983. From this data, a "standardized" house price is calculated and property price movements on a like -for-like basis (including seasonal adjustments) are analyzed over time.

Halifax House Price Index MoM

Halifax House Price Index YoY

In the United Kingdom, BBA Mortgage Rate refers to end month weighted average interest rate of UK monetary financial institutions (excl. Central Bank) sterling revert-to-rate mortgage to households. Mortgage priced at the standard variable rate.

BBA Mortgage Rate

In the United States, the productivity of nonfarm workers is measured as the output of goods and services per hour worked.  Labor productivity is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked of all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.

Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Final

Labour Costs refers to the relationship between compensation per hour and labor productivity, or real output per hour, and can be used as an indicator of inflationary pressure on producers.

Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final

In the United States, Consumer Credit refers to outstanding credit flows extended to individuals for household, family, and other personal expenditures, excluding loans secured by real estate.

Consumer Credit Change

The Wholesale Inventories are the stock of unsold goods held by wholesalers. Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product changes. A high inventory points to economic slowdown in the US, while a low reading points to a stronger growth.

Wholesale Inventories MoM

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index measures Americans' opinions and outlooks on the economy. The index is based on a nationwide survey of 900 adults and evaluates six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, confidence in federal economic policies. Reading above 50 indicates optimism, and below 50 indicates pessimism.

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

US Total Rigs refer to the number of active US rigs drilling in a given week.

Baker Hughes Total Rig Count

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index is a measure of used vehicle prices in the US which fall into one of the 20 market classes (i.e., excludes heavy trucks, motorcycles, etc). Manheim applies statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually. The per-mile adjustment is based on a simple linear regression for price and miles for each market class based on data for the current month The Index is weighted based on a 24-month rolling average of past sales by market class.

Used Car Prices MoM

Used Car Prices YoY

15-Year Mortgage Rate

The Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. The interest rate a lender would charge to lend mortgage money to a qualified borrower exclusive of the fees and points required by the lender. This commitment rate applies only to conventional financing on conforming mortgages with loan-to-value rates of 80 percent or less.

30-Year Mortgage Rate

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This is how to use the profit calculator

(0.01) X 100,000 = the potential profit and that would be $1,000.

However if the closing price is worse than the buy price, then the loss would be the equivalent amount.

If the account’s base currency is denominated in EUR, then $1,000 would have to be converted to the EUR equivalent at the current EURUSD rate of exchange.

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