The Eurozone March flash CPI estimate just came in at +6.9% y/y (+7.1% expected). Lower-than-expected headline inflation didn’t create much of a reaction in EURUSD as core inflation came in a...

Inflation and central banks in focus once again

Yesterday all the US equity indices rallied. The move higher was supported by a decrease in global banking worries. The S&P 500 added 1.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by...

Risk trades dominated US stock markets

The macroeconomic data released yesterday was mixed with the January Case-Shiller home price index declining and the March consumer-confidence survey indicating better than expected mood amon...

Healthy US consumer sentiment supported stocks

Crude Runs refer to the volume of crude oil consumed by refineries.

EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change

Stocks of crude oil refer to the weekly change of the crude oil supply situation.

EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

EIA Distillate Stocks Change

EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change

EIA Gasoline Production Change

EIA Crude Oil Imports Change

Stocks of gasoline refers to the weekly change of the gasoline supply situation.

EIA Gasoline Stocks Change

Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in storage at the Cushing, Oklahoma during the past week.

EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change

EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change

Initial jobless claims have a big impact in financial markets because unlike continued claims data which measures the number of persons claiming unemployment benefits, Initial jobless claims measures new and emerging unemployment.

Initial Jobless Claims

Jobless Claims 4-week Average

Continuing Jobless Claims refer to actual number of unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits who filed for unemployment benefits at least two weeks ago.

Continuing Jobless Claims

Natural Gas Stocks Change refers to the weekly change of the natural gas supply situation.

EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change

8-Week Bill Auction

4-Week Bill Auction

US Crude Oil Rigs refer to the number of active US rigs drilling for oil in a given week.

Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

3-Month Bill Auction

6-Month Bill Auction

The Johnson Redbook Index is a sales-weighted of year-over-year same-store sales growth in a sample of large US general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. Same-store sales are sales in stores continuously open for 12 months or longer. By dollar value, the Index represents over 80% of the equivalent 'official' retail sales series collected and published by the US Department of Commerce. Redbook compiles the Index by collecting and interpreting performance estimates from retailers. The Index and its sub-groups are sales-weighted aggregates of these estimates. Weeks are retail weeks (Sunday to Saturday), and equally weighted within the month.

Redbook YoY

API Crude Oil Stock Change

MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate is average 30-year fixed mortgage lending rate measured during the reported week and backed by the Mortgage Bankers Association.

MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate

In the US, the MBA Weekly Mortgage Application Survey is a comprehensive overview of the nationwide mortgage market and covers all types of mortgage originators, including commercial banks, thrift institutions and mortgage banking companies. The entire market is represented by the Market Index which covers all mortgage applications during the week, whether for a purchase or to refinance. The survey covers over 75% of all US retail residential mortgage applications.

MBA Mortgage Applications

The MBA Weekly Mortgage Application Survey is a comprehensive overview of the nationwide mortgage market and covers all types of mortgage originators, including commercial banks, thrift institutions and mortgage banking companies. The entire market is represented by the Market Index which covers all mortgage applications during the week. This includes all conventional and government applications, all fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs), all adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), whether for a purchase or to refinance.

MBA Mortgage Refinance Index

MBA Mortgage Market Index

MBA Purchase Index

The Index of Consumer Expectations focuses on three areas: how consumers view prospects for their own financial situation, how they view prospects for the general economy over the near term, and their view of prospects for the economy over the long term. Each monthly survey contains approximately 50 core questions, each of which tracks a different aspect of consumer attitudes and expectations. The samples for the Surveys of Consumers are statistically designed to be representative of all American households, excluding those in Alaska and Hawaii. Each month, a minimum of 500 interviews are conducted by telephone.

Michigan Consumer Expectations Final

Michigan Current Conditions Final

Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final

Michigan Inflation Expectations Final

In the United Kingdom, the core inflation rate tracks changes in prices that consumers pay for a basket of goods which excludes some volatile price items.

Core Inflation Rate MoM

In the United Kingdom, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is a monthly survey that measures the price  changes of goods bought and sold by manufacturers and provides an important measure of inflation. The factory gate price (the output price) is the price of goods sold by UK manufacturers. It includes costs such as labour, raw materials and energy, as well as interest on loans, site or building maintenance, or rent and excludes taxes.
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PPI Output YoY

The input price measures the price of materials and fuels bought by UK manufacturers for processing. It includes materials and fuels that are both imported or sourced within the domestic market. It is not limited to materials used in the final product but includes what is required by businesses in their normal day-to-day running, such as fuels.

PPI Input YoY

PPI Input MoM

In the United Kingdom, Producer Price Inflation MoM measures the month-over-month price changes of goods bought and sold by manufacturers and provides an important measure of inflation. The factory gate price (the output price) is the price of goods sold by UK manufacturers. It includes costs such as labour, raw materials and energy, as well as interest on loans, site or building maintenance, or rent and excludes taxes.

PPI Output MoM

Inflation Rate MoM measures month over month change in the price of goods and services.

Inflation Rate MoM

Core Inflation Rate YoY

In United Kingdom, the most important categories in the Consumer Price Index are: Transport (14%), Housing & Utilities (14%), and Recreation & Culture (13%). Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages account for 12%, Restaurants & Hotels for 11%, Miscellaneous Goods & Services for 9%¸ Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Maintenance of the House for 8%, and Clothing & Footwear for 6%. Others include: Alcoholic Drinks, Tobacco & Narcotics (5%), Education (3%), Communication (3%) and Health (2%).

Inflation Rate YoY

In the United Kingdom, the Core Producer Price Index is a monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods bought and sold by manufacturers excluding food, beverages, tobacco and petroleum products.

PPI Core Output YoY

PPI Core Output MoM

In the UK, the RPI index covers only private households but excludes the top 4% of households by income and pensioner households who receive at least three-quarters of their income from benefits. The index was initially developed as a compensation index, derived from an index designed as an aid to protect ordinary workers from price increases associated with the First World War. The RPI provides estimates of inflation from 1947 onwards with the first official release of consumer price inflation being produced in January 1956. Until the introduction of the UK CPI in 1996, the RPI and its derivatives were the only measures of UK consumer price inflation available to users.

Retail Price Index YoY

Retail Price Index MoM

Housing Starts refer to the number of new residential construction projects that have begun during any particular month. Estimates of housing starts include units in structures being totally rebuilt on an existing foundation.

Housing Starts

Building Permits refer to the approvals given by a local jurisdictions before the construction of a new or existing building can legally occur. Not all areas of the United States require a permit for construction.

Building Permits Prel

In the United Kingdom, the Retail sales report provides an aggregated measure of sales of retail goods and services over a specific time period. In the United Kingdom, Retail sales are seasonal, volatile and relatively important to the overall economy.

Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM

Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY

In the United Kingdom, the year-over-year change in Retail sales compares the aggregated sales of retail goods and services during a certain month to the same month a year ago.

Retail Sales YoY

Retail Sales MoM

In the United Kingdom, the Confederation of British Industry‘s Industrial Trends Survey of total order book balance tracks changes in the level of factory orders from around 500 companies across 38 sectors of manufacturing industry. The survey covers domestic and export orders, stocks, price, investment intentions and output expectations. For each variable, manufacturers are asked if present situation is above normal, normal or below normal. The results are presented as a weighted percentage balance, that is, the difference between the percentage of respondents replying more or up to each question minus the percentage replying less or down.

CBI Industrial Trends Orders

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is based on The Business Outlook Survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants report the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants: employment, working hours, new and unfilled orders, shipments, inventories, delivery times, prices paid, and prices received. The index above 0 indicates factory-sector growth, below 0 contraction.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Philly Fed Business Conditions

Philly Fed CAPEX Index

Philly Fed Employment

Philly Fed New Orders

Philly Fed Prices Paid

In the United States, Existing Home Sales occur when the mortgages are closed. Mortgage closing usually takes place 30-60 days after the sales contract is closed.

Existing Home Sales MoM

Existing Home Sales

CB Leading Index MoM

In the United Kingdom, the consumer confidence survey measures the level of optimism that consumers have about the performance of the economy in the next 12 months. The GfK Consumer Confidence is derived from the survey of about 2,000 consumers which are ask to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions including personal financial situation, climate for major purchases, overall economic situation and savings level.

Gfk Consumer Confidence

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

In the UK, public sector net borrowing measures the change in the public sectors accruing net financial indebtedness. This represents the balance for the financial account: the difference between the net acquisition of financial assets and the net incurrence of liabilities. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is often referred to by commentators as “the deficit”.

Public Sector Net Borrowing

In the UK, public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks (PSNB ex) measures the gap between revenue raised (current receipts) and total spending. Total spending refers to current expenditure plus net investment (capital spending less capital receipts). Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is often referred to by commentators as “the deficit”.

Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks

Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index measures the performance of the manufacturing sector and is derived from a survey of 600 industrial companies. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is based on five individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders (30 percent), Output (25 percent), Employment (20 percent), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15 percent) and Stock of Items Purchased (10 percent), with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month; below 50 represents a contraction; while 50 indicates no change.

S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash

The S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is based on data collected from companies in the transport and communication sector, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT and hotels and restaurants. The index tracks variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. A reading above 50 indicates that the services sector is generally expanding; below 50 indicates that it is generally declining.
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S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI Flash

The UK Composite PMI is a weighted average of the Manufacturing Output Index and the Services Business Activity Index.

S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI Flash

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Distributive Trades Survey (DTS) measures the health of the retail sector. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 150 retail and wholesale companies. It includes measures of sales activity across the distributive trades. It is a leading indicator of consumer spending. The figure is the difference between the percentage of retailers reporting an increase in sales and those reporting a decrease.

CBI Distributive Trades

Markit US Services PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is based on data collected from a representative panel of over 400 private sector companies covering transport and communication, financial intermediaries, business and personal services, computing & IT and hotels and restaurants. The index tracks variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. A reading above 50 indicates that the services sector is generally expanding; below 50 indicates that it is generally declining.

S&P Global Services PMI Flash

In the United States, Markit Composite PMI Output Index tracks business trends across both manufacturing and service sectors (60 percent from the manufacturing sector and 40 percent from the services sector). The index is based on data collected from a representative panel of over 1,000 companies and follows variables such as sales, new orders, employment, inventories and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in business activity while below 50 points to contraction.

S&P Global Composite PMI Flash

In the United States, the Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index measures the performance of the manufacturing sector and is derived from a survey of 600 industrial companies. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is based on five individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders (30 percent), Output (25 percent), Employment (20 percent), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15 percent) and Stock of Items Purchased (10 percent), with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month; below 50 represents a contraction; while 50 indicates no change.

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash

The Richmond Manufacturing Index measures the conditions of the manufacturing sector for the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and most of West Virginia. The index is derived from a survey of 190 manufacturing plants and based on three individual index with the following weights: Shipments (33 percent), New Orders (40 percent) and Employment (27 percent). The index can range between +100 and -100; a reading above zero indicates expansion, while below zero suggests a contraction.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index

A sale of the new house occurs with the signing of a sales contract or the acceptance of a deposit. The house can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction, or already completed. New home sales account for about 10 percent of the US housing market. New single-family home sales are extremely volatile month-to-month and preliminary figures are subject to large revisions because they are mostly drawn from building permits data.

New Home Sales MoM

The data come from the Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity. Respondents to the survey are firms located within the Fifth Federal Reserve District which includes the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and most of West Virginia. Respondents indicate whether measures of activity rose, were unchanged, or decreased since the last survey. The responses are converted into diffusion indexes by subtracting the percentage of reported decreases from the percentage of increases.

Richmond Fed Services Index

New Home Sales

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation refer to new orders placed with manufacturers for delivery of hard goods in the future excluding transportation orders.

Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM

Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air

Durable Goods Orders refer to new orders placed with manufacturers for delivery of hard goods which meant to last at least three years.

Durable Goods Orders MoM

Durable Goods Orders Excluding Defense refer to new orders placed with manufacturers for delivery of hard goods in the future excluding defense orders.

Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM

Car Production YoY

In the United States, personal consumption expenditure (PCE) is the primary measure of consumer spending in the U.S. economy. It is the National Income and Product Account (NIPA) final-demand component that measures the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, persons who reside in the United States.

Real Consumer Spending QoQ 2nd Est

In the United States, final sales of domestic product equals GDP less change in private inventories. It is also equal to the sum of personal consumption expenditures, gross private fixed investment, government consumption expenditures and gross investment, and net exports of goods and services.

GDP Sales QoQ 2nd Est

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This is how to use the profit calculator

(0.01) X 100,000 = the potential profit and that would be $1,000.

However if the closing price is worse than the buy price, then the loss would be the equivalent amount.

If the account’s base currency is denominated in EUR, then $1,000 would have to be converted to the EUR equivalent at the current EURUSD rate of exchange.

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