Weekly market analysis from 9th December
BY TIO Staff
|diciembre 9, 2024This week is set to be pivotal with a packed schedule of key economic data releases. Including central bank interest rate announcements likely to influence global markets.
The action begins on Tuesday with attention on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s expectation to maintain its cash rate at 4.35%. Traders will closely examine the accompanying rate statement for any signals about future monetary policy, particularly in light of global economic uncertainties.
Wednesday will feature important economic data and central bank events. The U.S. is set to release key inflation figures, with the Core CPI expected to remain unchanged at 0.3%. CPI m/m is also forecast to increase to 0.3%, up from 0.2% last month, while the CPI y/y is projected to rise to 2.7% from 2.6%. Later in the afternoon, the Bank of Canada (BOC) will release the overnight rate, which is expected to drop by 50 bp to 3.25%.
Thursday is set to be a busy day for economic releases, beginning with Australian employment change data, expected to rise to 26.0K, up from the previous 15.9K, while the unemployment rate is forecast to tick up slightly to 4.2%. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will follow with its policy rate, where it is expected to be reduced to 0.75% from 1.00%. In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its main refinancing rate, expected to decrease to 3.15% from 3.50%. The United States will also release key inflation data, with the Core PPI forecasted to tick down to 0.2%, while the PPI m/m is expected to tick up to 0.3%. Additionally, unemployment claims are projected at 221K, slightly lower than the previous of 224K. The day will end with the ECB press conference, where market participants will look for further clues on the future direction of European monetary policy.
The week wraps up on Friday with the United Kingdom’s GDP data, expected to show a modest rebound with a 0.1% forecast. This release will be closely watched for indications of economic health, especially as the Bank of England assesses its next moves.
Here are 3 markets to watch this week
All technical analysis is provided by Trading Central.
USD/JPY
If the price remains below the pivot point at 156.75, the USDJPY could potentially fall to the 146.00 or 141.65 range. Alternatively, if the price breaks the pivot point at 156.75 there could be potential upside with targets at 160.25 and 161.75. The RSI shows a mixed but overall bearish bias.
EUR/USD
If the price remains below the pivot point at 1.0940, the EURUSD could potentially fall to 1.0330 or 1.0080 in extension. Alternatively, if the price breaks the pivot point at 1.0940, there could be potential upside with targets at 1.1000 and 1.1200. The RSI is indicating neutral market conditions.
Gold
If the price remains above the pivot point at 2605.00, gold could potentially rise to 2720.00 or 2790.00 in extension. Alternatively, if the price breaks below the pivot point of 2605.00, there could be further potential downside with targets at 2540.00 and 2450.00. The RSI is indicating a neutral bias.
This weeks high impact market events
The following economic events and data releases have the potential to cause considerable price movements, thereby offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed and leverage our economic calendar to access real-time data and analysis as these key events unfold.
Time (GMT +3)
Tuesday 10th December
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 5:30 AM | AUD | Cash Rate |
| AUD | RBA Rate Statement |
Wednesday 11th December
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 3:30 PM | USD | Core CPI m/m |
| USD | CPI m/m | |
| USD | CPI y/y | |
| 4:45 PM | CAD | BOC Rate Statement |
| CAD | Overnight Rate | |
| 5:30 PM | CAD | BOC Press Conference |
Thursday 12th December
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 2:30 AM | AUD | Employment Change |
| AUD | Unemployment Rate | |
| 10:30 AM | CHF | SNB Monetary Policy Assessment |
| CHF | SNB Policy Rate | |
| 11:00 AM | CHF | SNB Press Conference |
| 3:15 PM | EUR | Main Refinancing Rate |
| EUR | Monetary Policy Statement | |
| 3:30 PM | USD | Core PPI m/m |
| USD | PPI m/m | |
| USD | Unemployment Claims | |
| 3:45 PM | EUR | ECB Press Conference |
Friday 13th December
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 9:00 AM | GBP | GDP m/m |
How will you trade the markets this week?
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