Weekly market analysis from 11th November 2024

This week brings a variety of impactful economic data releases and central bank statements that could influence currency movements across the globe.

Starting on Monday, attention will be on New Zealand's Inflation Expectations q/q, forecast to rise slightly to 2.12% from 2.03%. Any unexpected changes here could impact the NZD as inflation expectations drive central bank policy considerations.

On Tuesday, the UK will release its Claimant Count Change, expected to show an increase to 30.5K from the previous 27.9K, which might signal softening in the UK labor market and potentially weigh on the GBP if jobless claims exceed expectations.

Wednesday will be pivotal for both Australia and the US. Australia’s Wage Price Index q/q is forecast to tick up to 0.9% from 0.8%, with stronger wage growth possibly bolstering the AUD. In the US, inflation data will take center stage, with Core CPI m/m and CPI y/y both anticipated to hold steady at 0.3% and 2.4% respectively. If inflation surprises to the upside, it could reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy, affecting the USD.

Thursday shifts back to Australia with RBA Governor Bullock speaking, followed by Employment Change and Unemployment Rate releases, where analysts expect a slight decline in job creation to 25.2K from 64.1K while the unemployment rate holds at 4.1%. In the US, Core PPI and PPI m/m figures are due, along with Unemployment Claims expected to rise to 221K, and Fed Chair Powell’s speech, which could offer insight into future policy moves. Later, BOE Governor Bailey will address the economic outlook, adding further potential GBP volatility.

The week wraps up on Friday with the UK’s GDP m/m report, projected to remain steady at 0.2%, and in the US, Core Retail Sales m/m is expected to cool slightly to 0.2% from 0.5%, with Retail Sales m/m also slowing to 0.3%. These figures may indicate whether US consumer spending remains resilient amid economic pressures, potentially influencing USD momentum.

Here are 3 markets to watch this week

All technical analysis is provided by Trading Central.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD has been trading above a key pivot point level at 1.2610, which has held up well amid recent market volatility. The weekly chart appears bullish, suggesting that the pair could be setting up for a potential move higher. If buying interest remains above this pivot point, GBP/USD may rise towards initial targets at 1.3043 and extend up to 1.3260. However, should the market fail to sustain levels above 1.2610, downside momentum could push prices lower, with targets at 1.2450 and possibly 1.2300. Notably, the RSI indicator lacks strong downward momentum, which may support a bullish scenario as long as GBP/USD holds above the key support level at 1.2610.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD is testing resistance near the key pivot level at 0.6710, with a potential bearish outlook on the horizon. If the pair remains below this level, we may see further downside movement toward targets at 0.6490 and potentially extending to 0.6360. A break below 0.6490 would likely confirm this bearish scenario, adding downward pressure towards 0.6360. Conversely, if AUD/USD finds buying support and rises above 0.6710, we could see an upside reversal, with targets at 0.6800 and further extension to 0.6940. Current technical indicators suggest a break below 0.6490 may accelerate bearish momentum.

Gold

Gold has established a support base at the 2600.00 pivot level, creating an opportunity for a potential bullish move. With the price holding above this key level, we may see further upside toward targets at 2790.00, potentially extending to 2870.00 if upward momentum continues. This bullish scenario remains valid as long as the price stays above the 2600.00 pivot. However, if Gold dips below 2600.00, it may see a downside move, with support targets at 2525.00 and possibly down to 2450.00. The formation of a support base at 2600.00 suggests temporary stabilization, but the next direction depends on the market's ability to hold this level.

This weeks high impact market events

The following economic events and data releases have the potential to cause considerable price movements, thereby offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed and leverage our economic calendar to access real-time data and analysis as these key events unfold.

Time (GMT +3)

Monday 11th November

Tuesday 12th November

Wednesday 13th November

Thursday 14th November

Friday 15th November

How will you trade the markets this week?

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