Weekly market analysis from 2nd December
BY TIO Staff
|12 3, 2024This week’s economic calendar is packed with key data releases and events that could drive market volatility across forex, commodities, and equities. The highlight was U.S. economic indicators, which started on Monday the 2nd December, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI. It improved slightly to 47.6 from 46.5, signaling potential stabilization in the manufacturing sector amid economic uncertainty.
On Tuesday 3rd December, the focus shifted to Switzerland’s CPI data, which declined by -0.1%, reflecting continued deflationary pressures. Later in the day, U.S. JOLTS Job Openings, reported at 7.49 million, provided insight into labor market tightness, a critical factor for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Wednesday 4th December will be particularly active, beginning with Australia’s GDP data, where a modest 0.2% quarterly growth is anticipated, hinting at economic resilience. U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to show a decline to 166K from 233K, while the ISM Services PMI will gauge service sector momentum, with a slight drop to 55.6 forecasted. All eyes will then turn to Fed Chair Powell’s speech for guidance on future rate decisions amid evolving economic conditions.
Thursday 5th December brings U.S. unemployment claims data, with the labor market expected to remain strong as claims hover around 213K. The week culminates on Friday 6th December with Canada’s employment data, where a modest gain of 14.5K jobs is expected alongside a 6.5% unemployment rate. In the U.S., key employment reports including Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate (forecasted at 4.2%) will offer a comprehensive view of labor market health, alongside Average Hourly Earnings data, projected to rise by 0.3%.
Traders will need to monitor these events closely as they could shape monetary policy expectations and drive market sentiment.
Here are 3 markets to watch this week
All technical analysis is provided by Trading Central.
CAD/CHF
The CAD/CHF pair is expected to rise toward the resistance levels of 0.6436 and 0.6491, as long as the pivot point at 0.6230 holds as support. The upside remains favored while 0.6230 is maintained. If the price drops below this support level, further declines towards 0.6139 and 0.6084 could occur. The RSI is currently above 50, and the MACD is positive, signaling a bullish outlook. Additionally, the price is trading above both the 20-period (0.6293) and 50-period (0.6273) moving averages, further supporting the positive trend. Key support and resistance levels include 0.6230 (strong support), 0.6316, 0.6436, 0.6491, and 0.6546, with the strongest resistance at 0.6600.
GBP/CAD
The GBP/CAD pair is expected to decline towards the support levels of 1.7192 and 1.7380, as long as the pivot point at 1.8038 remains acting as resistance. The downside is favored while 1.8038 holds as resistance. A breakout above this level would shift the bias to the upside, targeting 1.8355 and 1.8543. The RSI is below 50, and the MACD is negative, indicating a bearish outlook. Furthermore, the price is trading below both the 20-period (1.7824) and 50-period (1.7889) moving averages, supporting the negative trend. Key support and resistance levels include 1.7192 (strong support), 1.7380, 1.7774, 1.7914, 1.8038, 1.8355, and 1.8543.
EUR/CAD
The EUR/CAD pair is expected to fall towards the support levels of 1.4235 and 1.4397, as long as the pivot point at 1.4966 remains intact as resistance. The downside trend is favored while 1.4966 holds as resistance. A breakout above this level would shift the outlook to the upside, targeting 1.5239 and 1.5401. The RSI is below 50, and the MACD is negative, signaling a bearish bias. Additionally, the price is trading below both the 20-period (1.4863) and 50-period (1.4949) moving averages, further supporting the negative trend. Key support and resistance levels include 1.4235 (strong support), 1.4397, 1.4749, 1.4859, 1.4966, 1.5239, and 1.5401.
This week's high impact market events
The following economic events and data releases have the potential to cause considerable price movements, thereby offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed and leverage our economic calendar to access real-time data and analysis as these key events unfold.
Time (GMT +3)
Monday 2nd December
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 5:00 PM | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI |
Tuesday 3rd December
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 9:30 AM | CHF | CPI m/m |
| 5:00 PM | USD | JOLTS Job Openings |
Wednesday 4th December
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 2:30 AM | AUD | GDP q/q |
| 3:15 PM | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
| 5:00 PM | USD | ISM Services PMI |
| 8:45 PM | USD | Fed Chair Powell Speaks |
Thursday 5th December
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 3:30 PM | USD | Unemployment Claims |
Friday 6th December
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 3:30 PM | CAD | Employment Change |
| CAD | Unemployment Rate | |
| USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | |
| USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | |
| USD | Unemployment Rate |
How will you trade the markets this week?
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