Weekly market analysis from 17th March 2025
BY TIO Staff
|3 17, 2025This week's economic calendar is packed with high impact events that could create significant volatility in the markets. Including inflation and employment data, as well as interest rate decisions from major central banks.
Monday, retails sales affecting the USD
The week begins on Monday with US Retail Sales m/m, which is expected to increase to 0.7%, from -0.9% in the previous month. Core Retail Sales m/m is also forecasted to rise to 0.4%, from the previous figure of -0.4%. The anticipated rebound suggests a potential recovery in consumer spending after January's decline. If these figures meet expectations, it could signal renewed consumer confidence and potentially lead to the strengthening of the US Dollar.
Tuesday, Canadian inflation (CPI) data
Canada’s CPI (Consumer Price Index) will be in focus on Tuesday, with expectations that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m will increase to 0.6%, up from 0.1% in the previous month. The expected increase indicates rising inflationary pressures, and this could influence the central bank's monetary policy decisions in April.
Wednesday, Fed & BOJ interest rate decisions
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to maintain interest rates at 0.50%, traders will closely watch for signals about any potential policy shifts, particularly after recent discussions on modifying Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also expected to keep the funds rate steady at 4.50%, suggesting it will maintain its current stance of high rates for longer. The day finishes with New Zealand's GDP q/q, which is forecasted to rebound from -0.1% to 0.4%, potentially adding strength to the NZD.
Thursday, SNB & BOE interest rate decisions
Thursday is a particularly busy day, with a lot of high impact events. The day begins with employment data affecting the AUD and GBP. Then the SNB will announce their Policy Rate, which is expected to be reduced by 25 basis points from 0.50% to 0.25%. If the actual data is as expected, this could signal a shift toward easing monetary policy. Shortly after, the BOE will announce their official bank rate, which is expected to remain unchanged at 4.50%. Later in the day, unemployment claims from the US are expected to tick up slightly from 220K to 222k, indicating stable but slightly softening labor conditions.
Friday, Canadian retail sales
Finally on Friday, market participants will be watching closely for the Canadian retail sales data. Core Retail Sales m/m is forecasted to remain flat at 0.0%, which is a significant slowdown from the previous 2.7% increase. Retail Sales m/m is forecasted to decline by -0.4%, down from a strong 2.5% in the previous month. A slowdown in retail sales growth could signal cooling consumer activity, which may weigh on the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
Here are 3 markets to watch this week
All technical analysis is provided by Trading Central.
GBP/JPY

If GBP/JPY remains above the pivot point at 191.95, the pair could potentially rise toward the resistance levels at 193.68 and 194.13. Alternatively, a break below 191.95 may lead to further downside, targeting 191.21 and 190.76. The pair’s technical indicators suggests a bullish bias, The RSI is above 50, the MACD is positive and above its signal line, moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average
CHF/JPY

If CHF/JPY remains above the pivot point at 167.84, the pair could potentially rise toward the resistance levels at 169.21 and 169.56. Alternatively, a break below 167.84 may lead to further downside, targeting 167.24 and 166.88. The pair’s price action suggests a bullish bias with a positive technical indicator configuration as the RSI is above 50, the MACD is also positive and above its signal line.
USD/JPY

If the price remains above the pivot point at 148.40, the pair could potentially rise toward the resistance levels at 149.20 and 149.60 respectively. Alternatively, a break below 148.40 may lead to further downside, targeting 148.05 and 147.75. As long as the pivot point acts as support, the price action and RSI suggests a bullish bias.
This week's high impact events
The following economic events and data releases have the potential to cause considerable price movements, thereby offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed and leverage our economic calendar to access real-time data and analysis as these key events unfold.
Time (GMT +2)
Monday, 17th March
2:30 PM | USD | Core Retail Sales m/m |
USD | Retail Sales m/m |
Tuesday, 18th March
2:30 PM | CAD | CPI m/m |
CAD | CAD Median CPI y/y | |
CAD | Trimmed CPI y/y |
Wednesday, 19th March
Tentative | JPY | BOJ Policy Rate |
Tentative | JPY | Monetary Policy Statement |
Tentative | JPY | BOJ Press Conference |
8:00 PM | USD | Federal Funds Rate |
8:00 PM | USD | FOMC Economic Projections |
8:00 PM | USD | FOMC Statement |
8:30 PM | USD | FOMC Press Conference |
11:45 PM | NZD | GDP q/q |
Thursday, 20th March
2:30 AM | AUD | Employment Change |
2:30 AM | AUD | Unemployment Rate |
9:00 AM | GBP | Claimant Count Change |
10:30 AM | CHF | SNB Monetary Policy Assessment |
10:30 AM | CHF | SNB Policy Rate |
11:00 AM | CHF | SNB Press Conference |
2:00 PM | GBP | Monetary Policy Summary |
2:00 PM | GBP | MPC Official Bank Rate Votes |
2:00 PM | GBP | Official Bank Rate |
2:30 PM | GBP | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks |
2:30 PM | USD | Unemployment Claims |
6:50 PM | CAD | BOC Gov Macklem Speaks |
Friday, 21st March
2:30 PM | CAD | Core Retail Sales m/m |
2:30 PM | CAD | Retail Sales m/m |
How will you trade the markets this week?

Risk disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Never deposit more than you are prepared to lose. Professional client’s losses can exceed their deposit. Please see our risk warning policy and seek independent professional advice if you do not fully understand. This information is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by residents of certain countries/jurisdictions including, but not limited to, USA & Countries included in the OFAC sanction list. The Company holds the right to alter the aforementioned list of countries at its own discretion.
TIOmarkets offers an exclusively execution-only service. The views expressed are for information purposes only. None of the content provided constitutes any form of investment advice. The comments are made available purely for educational and marketing purposes and do NOT constitute advice or investment recommendation (and should not be considered as such) and do not in any way constitute an invitation to acquire any financial instrument or product. TIOmarkets and its affiliates and consultants are not liable for any damages that may be caused by individual comments or statements by TIOmarkets analysis and assumes no liability with respect to the completeness and correctness of the content presented. The investor is solely responsible for the risk of his/her investment decisions. The analyses and comments presented do not include any consideration of your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. The content has not been prepared in accordance with any legal requirements for financial analysis and must, therefore, be viewed by the reader as marketing information. TIOmarkets prohibits duplication or publication without explicit approval.
Join us on social media

Behind every blog post lies the combined experience of the people working at TIOmarkets. We are a team of dedicated industry professionals and financial markets enthusiasts committed to providing you with trading education and financial markets commentary. Our goal is to help empower you with the knowledge you need to trade in the markets effectively.
Related Posts
undefined