Weekly market analysis from 17th March 2025

This week's economic calendar is packed with high impact events that could create significant volatility in the markets. Including inflation and employment data, as well as interest rate decisions from major central banks.

Monday, retails sales affecting the USD

The week begins on Monday with US Retail Sales m/m, which is expected to increase to 0.7%, from -0.9% in the previous month. Core Retail Sales m/m is also forecasted to rise to 0.4%, from the previous figure of -0.4%. The anticipated rebound suggests a potential recovery in consumer spending after January's decline. If these figures meet expectations, it could signal renewed consumer confidence and potentially lead to the strengthening of the US Dollar.

Tuesday, Canadian inflation (CPI) data

Canada’s CPI (Consumer Price Index) will be in focus on Tuesday, with expectations that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m will increase to 0.6%, up from 0.1% in the previous month. The expected increase indicates rising inflationary pressures, and this could influence the central bank's monetary policy decisions in April.

Wednesday, Fed & BOJ interest rate decisions

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to maintain interest rates at 0.50%, traders will closely watch for signals about any potential policy shifts, particularly after recent discussions on modifying Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also expected to keep the funds rate steady at 4.50%, suggesting it will maintain its current stance of high rates for longer. The day finishes with New Zealand's GDP q/q, which is forecasted to rebound from -0.1% to 0.4%, potentially adding strength to the NZD.

Thursday, SNB & BOE interest rate decisions

Thursday is a particularly busy day, with a lot of high impact events. The day begins with employment data affecting the AUD and GBP. Then the SNB will announce their Policy Rate, which is expected to be reduced by 25 basis points from 0.50% to 0.25%. If the actual data is as expected, this could signal a shift toward easing monetary policy. Shortly after, the BOE will announce their official bank rate, which is expected to remain unchanged at 4.50%. Later in the day, unemployment claims from the US are expected to tick up slightly from 220K to 222k, indicating stable but slightly softening labor conditions.

Friday, Canadian retail sales

Finally on Friday, market participants will be watching closely for the Canadian retail sales data. Core Retail Sales m/m is forecasted to remain flat at 0.0%, which is a significant slowdown from the previous 2.7% increase. Retail Sales m/m is forecasted to decline by -0.4%, down from a strong 2.5% in the previous month. A slowdown in retail sales growth could signal cooling consumer activity, which may weigh on the Canadian Dollar (CAD).

Here are 3 markets to watch this week

All technical analysis is provided by Trading Central.

GBP/JPY

If GBP/JPY remains above the pivot point at 191.95, the pair could potentially rise toward the resistance levels at 193.68 and 194.13. Alternatively, a break below 191.95 may lead to further downside, targeting 191.21 and 190.76. The pair’s technical indicators suggests a bullish bias, The RSI is above 50, the MACD is positive and above its signal line, moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average

CHF/JPY

If CHF/JPY remains above the pivot point at 167.84, the pair could potentially rise toward the resistance levels at 169.21 and 169.56. Alternatively, a break below 167.84 may lead to further downside, targeting 167.24 and 166.88. The pair’s price action suggests a bullish bias with a positive technical indicator configuration as the RSI is above 50, the MACD is also positive and above its signal line.

USD/JPY

If the price remains above the pivot point at 148.40, the pair could potentially rise toward the resistance levels at 149.20 and 149.60 respectively. Alternatively, a break below 148.40 may lead to further downside, targeting 148.05 and 147.75. As long as the pivot point acts as support, the price action and RSI suggests a bullish bias.

This week's high impact events

The following economic events and data releases have the potential to cause considerable price movements, thereby offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed and leverage our economic calendar to access real-time data and analysis as these key events unfold.

Time (GMT +2)

Monday, 17th March

Tuesday, 18th March

Wednesday, 19th March

Thursday, 20th March

Friday, 21st March

How will you trade the markets this week?

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Behind every blog post lies the combined experience of the people working at TIOmarkets. We are a team of dedicated industry professionals and financial markets enthusiasts committed to providing you with trading education and financial markets commentary. Our goal is to help empower you with the knowledge you need to trade in the markets effectively.

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