Weekly market analysis from 25th November
BY TIO Staff
|Kasım 26, 2024This week’s economic calendar offers a range of data releases and central bank events that are expected to influence market sentiment. The week started without any major economic events, providing traders with time to prepare for a packed schedule for the week ahead.
On Tuesday, the focus will be on the US Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board. Forecast to rise to 111.8 from the previous 108.7, this data will be watched closely as an indicator of consumer optimism heading into the holiday season. A stronger-than-expected reading could signal resilience in consumer spending, potentially boosting US markets. Later in the evening, the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes will command attention. Traders will scrutinize the details for clues on the Federal Reserve's stance on inflation and its path for interest rates. The minutes are expected to reflect debates around the recent signs of softening inflation and the Fed’s commitment to its 2% target.
The action picks up significantly on Wednesday, starting with Australia’s CPI data for the third quarter, which is anticipated to rise year-over-year to 2.5% from the previous 2.1%. This marks a critical indicator of whether inflation is nearing the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range, potentially shaping future monetary policy. In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will release its Official Cash Rate decision. Markets expect a 50-basis-point cut, lowering the rate from 4.75% to 4.25%, signaling the possibility of easing monetary conditions. Alongside the rate announcement, the RBNZ will release its Monetary Policy Statement, followed by a press conference that will shed further light on its inflation and growth projections.
US markets will turn their attention to key economic data mid-week, with the Preliminary GDP for Q3 expected to hold steady at 2.8%. This stable growth rate will be accompanied by Unemployment Claims, which are forecasted to decline slightly from 215K to 213K. Later, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is projected to remain at 0.3%, highlighting whether inflationary pressures in consumer spending have moderated.
Thursday shifts focus to Europe, where Germany will release its Preliminary CPI figures. Expectations of a 0.2% monthly decline, down from the prior 0.4% increase, could hint at easing inflation in the eurozone’s largest economy. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock is scheduled to speak, and markets will listen for any signals on future monetary policy adjustments.
The week wraps up on Friday with high-impact events from the UK and Canada. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech that could provide insights into the UK’s policy outlook amidst persistent inflationary challenges. Canada will release its monthly GDP data, with forecasts anticipating a return to growth at 0.3%, following a flat reading in the previous month. This could indicate resilience in the Canadian economy, though traders will remain cautious about broader growth headwinds.
Overall, this week offers a rich blend of data and central bank insights, potentially setting the stage for volatile market moves. Traders will need to stay vigilant as the implications of these releases unfold across forex, commodity, and equity markets.
Here are 3 markets to watch this week
All technical analysis is provided by Trading Central.
EUR/CAD
The EUR/CAD pair may continue its downward trajectory, targeting the 1.4206 to 1.4376 range. With a pivot point at 1.5053 acting as a key resistance, the bearish outlook remains intact unless this level is breached. Technical indicators further support the downside bias: the RSI is below its neutral 50 level, signaling weak momentum, and the MACD is negative and trading below its signal line. Additionally, the pair remains below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish configuration. However, should the price break above 1.5053, it could pave the way for potential gains toward 1.5340 and 1.5511.
AUD/CAD
The AUD/CAD pair shows signs of a potential rebound, with an upside target range of 0.9415 to 0.9540. The pivot point at 0.8935 serves as a crucial support level, and as long as this level holds, the bullish scenario remains intact. The RSI is positioned above 50, indicating positive momentum, while the MACD, though negative, is above its signal line, suggesting potential for further recovery if it crosses into positive territory. Additionally, the pair is trading above its 20-period moving average (currently at 0.9143), although it remains below the 50-period moving average (at 0.9175). A sustained move higher could pave the way toward the 0.9666 and 0.9791 resistance levels. However, a break below the 0.8935 pivot would shift focus to 0.8725 and 0.8601, signaling a renewed bearish trend.
AUD/NZD
The AUD/NZD pair appears poised for further upside, with potential targets in the 1.1290 to 1.1370 range. The pivot point at 1.0980 acts as a critical support level, and as long as the price remains above this threshold, the bullish outlook holds. Supporting this view, the RSI is above 50, reflecting positive momentum, while the MACD is both above its signal line and in positive territory, confirming a favorable technical setup. Additionally, the pair is trading above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, currently at 1.1044 and 1.0982, respectively, further reinforcing the upward trend. However, a break below 1.0980 would signal a potential reversal, with downside targets at 1.0840 and 1.0760.
This week's high impact market events
The following economic events and data releases have the potential to cause considerable price movements, thereby offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed and leverage our economic calendar to access real-time data and analysis as these key events unfold.
Time (GMT +3)
Tuesday November 26th
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 5:00 PM | USD | CB Consumer Confidence |
| 9:00 PM | USD | FOMC Meeting Minutes |
Wednesday November 27th
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 2:30 AM | AUD | CPI y/y |
| 3:00 AM | NZD | Official Cash Rate |
| NZD | RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement | |
| NZD | RBNZ Rate Statement | |
| 4:00 AM | NZD | RBNZ Press Conference |
| 3:30 PM | USD | Prelim GDP q/q |
| USD | Unemployment Claims | |
| 5:00 PM | USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m |
Thursday November 28th
| Time | Currency | Event |
| All Day | EUR | German Prelim CPI m/m |
| 10:55 AM | AUD | RBA Gov Bullock Speaks |
Friday November 29th
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 1:00 PM | GBP | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks |
| 3:30 PM | CAD | GDP m/m |
How will you trade the markets this week?
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