EURUSD Forecast for the Week of 23rd March 2026
BY TIOmarkets
|March 23, 2026EUR/USD Market Overview
EUR/USD is starting the week of March 23-27, 2026 close to the 1.1570 level at 1.1569, steadying after the fluctuations that the changes in central bank policies in the previous week brought about. The currency pair has seen it’s short-term structure stabilize following meetings between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, given that neither would commit to anything that would determine the pair's direction.
Since it tested the 1.1600 resistance level, the currency pair has been unable to gain further upward momentum. This implies that the market is probably reflecting on macro factors instead of pushing forward the previous trend.
Because of resiliency in US economic data and a cautious Federal Reserve, USD is still seeing some support. By contrast, EUR is seeing slower growth, some of this down to increases in energy prices.
Despite this, the pair hasn’t yet gone below the major support levels, suggesting a positive long-term trend. That indicates the recent movement is nothing more than a pause in the uptrend rather than a complete reversal.
Some of the main factors that will determine market movements include:
- Changes in Fed rate hike expectations
- Ongoing contrast between US and Eurozone economic performance
- Inflation becoming less volatile
- Continued geopolitical and energy supply risk factors
This has lead to sideways movement, with USD/EUR retaining its price within a certain range while awaiting new economic data to determine its direction.
Technical Analysis for EUR/USD
Current Market Structure
Looking at the chart, it is clear that EUR/USD has a short-term outlook that is either neutral or slightly bearish.
Right now, the market is:
- Trading beneath the short-term moving averages (10, 30 periods)
- Staying close to the 50-period moving average (~1.1525)
- Trading above the long-term moving averages (100, 200 periods)
This setup quite clearly indicates that the market is in correction rather than reversal.
Moreover, we keep witnessing the price hitting lower highs, which is a technical way of saying that the supply is still quite strong and it keeps dominating the rallies. The supports, however, have so far held firm, which somewhat limits the bearish picture.
Moving Averages and Trend Structure
Plotting moving averages of price indicates a short-term weakness while the support in the longer-term sustains the price.
Short-term averages like the 10-, 20-, and 30-EMA are all above current prices. This not only highlights potential resistance areas but also confirms momentum is lacking on the short-term side.
Aside from that, the 50-period moving average at approximately 1.1525 is a level where price tends to pivot. Moreover, the 100- and 200-period moving averages maintains structural support.
If the pair stays above the 1.1500-1.1525 range, the overall bullish setup will remain valid.
Momentum Indicators
Leading the way forward, momentum oscillators show a sideways market movement with a slight lean towards a downward move.
Right now, the RSI is sitting just below the midpoint at 50, indicating subdued bullish momentum. However, the RSI is not so deeply oversold that the price couldn't continue to trade sideways for a while.
The MACD indicator remains negative, supporting indications of a wek short-term momentum.
And, with indicators such as the Stochastics being close to oversold territory, a rebound could happen in the near future.
To conclude, the momentum hints at weakened trend strength and that the market is heavily influenced by economic news.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
For this week's trading, below levels play a pivotal role:
Resistance Levels
- 1.1600: first resistance
- 1.1630: 1.1670, strong resistance zone
- 1.1700: breakout classic
- 1.1750: 1.1800, highest resistance
Support Levels
- 1.1550: a few days support
- 1.1525: main support
- 1.1500: the threshold
- 1.1450: lower support
The 1.1525-1.1630 corridor will most probably determine the behavior of the market shortly.
Bullish Scenario
In case EUR/USD manages to hold the 1.1550-1.1600 levels and subsequently breach the 1.1630-1.1670 resistance range, a bullish scenario will be on the cards.
Breaking out will set a target for the following levels:
- 1.1700
- 1.1750
- possibly 1.1800
This could happen if US economic data turn out to be weaker than expected, US interest rates/USD yields fall or there is a Federal Reserve policy easing expectation.
Additionally, better Eurozone economic statistics and/or a tamed energy market situation will help in strengthening the euro too.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish scenario comes into play after EUR/USD falls through 1.1525 and cannot maintain 1.1500.
From there, the market will head toward:
- 1.1450
- 1.1400
should the US economy see strong performance, global risk aversion increases, or the Fed turning hawkish fuel USD, this could easily happen.
However, while the pair remains above 1.1450, the larger structural perspective is still positive.
EUR/USD Fundamental Drivers
United States Economic Data
The spotlight will be on confirming the economic data after last week's central bank decisions.
Main US pieces of data will be:
- JOLTs Job Openings
- Retail Sales
- ISM Manufacturing PMI
- ISM Services PMI
These numbers will be essential in assessing whether the US economy continues to perform well.
Federal Reserve Expectations
Market sentiment is adjusting to the time and size of possible rate cuts.
Should data indicate a slowdown, the market would price in rate cuts more, thereby weighing on the US dollar. That said, a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve could be justified if inflation and growth stays firm.
Eurozone Economic Outlook
For the euro area, economic releases due will be:
- PMI data (Germany, France, Eurozone)
- IFO Business Climate
- Inflation indicators
Weakness going forward is likely to pressure the euro while improvement may lead to support for the pair.
Global Risk Sentiment
Global risk sentiment continues to be a major factor.
Usually, times of geopolitical stress or a rise in energy prices are ones when the US dollar is supported, whereas an easing in sentiment favors the euro.
This Week's EUR/USD High Impact Events
- JOLTsJobOpenings: Gives insight into the US labor market
- RetailSales: Measures consumer spending
- ISMManufacturing/ServicesPMI: Business activity gauges
- EurozonePMIData: Regional economic performance
- IFOBusinessClimateIndex: German economic confidence
- CentralBankSpeeches: Fed and ECB officials
Risk considerations for EUR/USD this week
There are several risk factors that could potentially impact EUR/USD price fluctuation:
- Firstly, economic data surprises at the macro level that could change market sentiment immediately.
- Secondly, an adjustment of Federal Reserve expectations is a key factor influencing the USD strength.
- Thirdly, geopolitical events and changes in energy prices have the ability to significantly alter market sentiment.
Lastly, there is the technical breakout risk that still looms large, and a departure from the 1.1525-1.1630 range would most probably lead to a stronger directional move.
Risk disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Never deposit more than you are prepared to lose. Professional client’s losses can exceed their deposit. Please see our risk warning policy and seek independent professional advice if you do not fully understand. This information is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by residents of certain countries/jurisdictions including, but not limited to, USA & Countries included in the OFAC sanction list. The Company holds the right to alter the aforementioned list of countries at its own discretion.
TIOmarkets offers an exclusively execution-only service. The views expressed are for information purposes only. None of the content provided constitutes any form of investment advice. The comments are made available purely for educational and marketing purposes and do NOT constitute advice or investment recommendation (and should not be considered as such) and do not in any way constitute an invitation to acquire any financial instrument or product. TIOmarkets and its affiliates and consultants are not liable for any damages that may be caused by individual comments or statements by TIOmarkets analysis and assumes no liability with respect to the completeness and correctness of the content presented. The investor is solely responsible for the risk of his/her investment decisions. The analyses and comments presented do not include any consideration of your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. The content has not been prepared in accordance with any legal requirements for financial analysis and must, therefore, be viewed by the reader as marketing information. TIOmarkets prohibits duplication or publication without explicit approval.
Join us on social media
Behind every blog post lies the combined experience of the people working at TIOmarkets. We are a team of dedicated industry professionals and financial markets enthusiasts committed to providing you with trading education and financial markets commentary. Our goal is to help empower you with the knowledge you need to trade in the markets effectively.
Related Posts
