EURUSD Forecast for the Week of 30thMarch 2026
BY TIOmarkets
|March 30, 2026EUR/USD Market Overview
EUR/USD starts the week of 30 March–3 April 2026 trading near 1.1510, a little below the middle of last week's consolidation range.
After reaching the top of the range near 1.1650, the pair has gone down, reflecting the reset of interest rate expectations after the FOMC meeting. The gradual slide in price also signifies a stronger US dollar backing.
However, this decline is just a pullback in the bigger picture. EUR/USD is on a long-term bullish trend and what we see now is just a technical retracement rather than a structural reversal..
Market volatility in the short run has picked up as central bank moves fade and focus shifts to a data-driven environment, strongly focused on macroeconomic released in the US.
Main factors affecting the market include:
- Strong US economic activity, especially in the services sector.
- Non-Farm Payrolls week shines a spotlight on US labor market data (NFP week).
- Slow yet steady Eurozone inflation dynamics.
- Significant policy divergence between Fed and ECB.
These factors are supporting a bearish consolidation structure as the market is waiting for the next set of macroeconomic surprises.
EUR/USD, currently, doesn't show much directional conviction and remains range-bound ahead of major data releases.
Technical Analysis for EUR/USD
Current Market Structure
EUR/USD's weekly chart shows that a bullish macro trend still exists, although momentum on a short time frame is waning.
The move down from 1.1650 area toward 1.1500 is just a retracement level within a bigger uptrend.
Just looking at the recent price movement, EUR/USD is showing a slight bearish bias, as the pair has had lower highs after mid-March.
These falls, however, remain orderly as the price has not even come close to breaking the key support levels.
Moving Averages
Price remains in a downward correction phase, as indicated by the moving averages analysis.
- 20-period MA: Just above 1.1620 (the price is below it, acting as a short-term resistance)
- 50-period MA: Around 1.1525 (a key pivot level)
- 100-period MA: Near 1.1320
- 200-period MA: Close to 1.1180
The above settings point to a short-term correction within a longer-term bullish structure.
The present 50-period moving average near 1.1525 is going to be our most important technical guide.
Momentum Indicators
Momentum tools are indicating a move toward a neutral-to-slightly bearish environment. RSI is hovering below its mid-50 level, which indicates a weakening of the bullish trend while the MACD also shows weakness in the short run as it remains on the negative side.
But since oscillators are already near the oversold boundary, short-term stabilization abre highly possible. If we see the overall direction of momentum, we would say that themarketis losing direction and entering consolidation conditions.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
In line with our technical analysis above, major levels to watch this week.
Resistance Levels
- 1.1550, near-term resistance
- 1.1600, main resistance
- 1.1620, 1.1660, major resistance zone
- 1.1700, last resistance
Support Levels
- 1.1500, psychological level
- 1.1450, key structural support
- 1.1400, secondary support
- 1.1300, medium-term support
Trading between 1.1450 and 1.1600 would imply that the EUR/USD market remains in a range-bound situation.
Bullish Scenario
If EUR/USD holds the 1.1500 level and makes a move toward the upside, then technically a bullish scenario can come to life.
Breaking above 1.1600 could signal the first string of fresh buying pressure.
The next targets could be:
- 1.1650
- 1.1700
This view may gain plenty of ground if US figures turn out to be much weaker, for example a dismal Non-Farm Payrolls report, leading to Fed expectations for a less tight stance.
Eurozone's prices staying on a steady track could, conversely, justify the ECB keeping restrictions in place.
Under such mixed conditions, EUR/USD would be likely to spike to the top of the current range.
Bearish Scenario
On the other hand, if EUR/USD breaks down through the 1.1500 level and falls below 1.1450, the bear camp could get some fresh inspiration.
Going from there, a decline to:
- 1.1400
- 1.1300
This bearish scenario may happen if US economy keeps showing its strength and investors buy into the Fed's "higher for longer" interest rate approach.
Labor market data, especially the main event NFP, coming in strong might be a factor that will unseat EUR/USD. Other times that global risk aversion rises may coincide with enhanced USD demand.
However, in the long-term context, the bulls may still be favoured as long as price holds above 1.1300.
EUR/USD Fundamental Drivers
Here’s a summary of the main fundamental drivers for EUR/USD.
United States Economic Data
The economic calendar will revolve around the US data points. Last releases have shown a mixed butresilient economic environment. Measures of business activity have stayed fairly robust, especially in the service sector, which points to steady, if not even vibrant, economic expansion.
Labor market, though, has been at least partially hinting at moderation, making the overall picture quite uncertain. Key releases this week are Non-Farm Payrolls, ISM indicators and retail sales. These will probably decide the fate of the US economy, whether it is stabilizing or hitting a slowdown.
Data strength will give a boost to the US dollar, the opposite happens with its slump.
Federal Reserve Expectations
Markets are trying to figure out the timing and magnitude of potential rate cuts. Fed rates still remain a function of the incoming data with policymakers weighing the inflation and the jobs market performance.
If, as expected, more data comes out showing a robust economy, the market will start pricing out rate cuts which would support the dollar. If, however, data gets softer and especially if it is a labor market one, we could see an increase in the easing rumors and, therefore, dollar may weaken.
Eurozone Inflation
Inflation in the eurozone is quite stable now and moving gradually toward the target. Data point to a deceleration in price rises, but not enough to indicate the very steep easing.
Thus, the ECB is likely to continue cautiously restricting policy while also watching for downside risks to growth. Stable inflation will probably continue to act as a floor for the euro, even if growth is a bit disappointing.
Policy Divergence
Monetary policy divergence remains a key theme for EUR/USD. The Federal Reserve is able to get support from stronger economic data whilst the ECB is confronted with a more fragile growth environment.
This divergence is currently favoring the USD in the short term, however, longer-term effects are more balanced.
This Week's EUR/USD High Impact Events
Economic events this week that may impact EUR/USD volatility.
United States
- Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): If the labor market report is strong, it could be supportive of the US dollar while a weak one would be priced in as an increase in expectations of Federal Reserve easing..
- Unemployment Rate: Will not only indicate the labor market's condition, but also helps or shed light on the USD. An increase in the unemployment rate is expected to weigh on USD.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: Measures manufacturing sector activity; strong readings indicate the economy is expanding and may provide support for USD.
- ISM Services PMI: Leading service sector indicator to a major portion of the US economy. An unexpectedly good result normally strengthens the USD.
- Retail Sales: Indicates trends in consumer spending, with higher data than expected suggesting resilience and supporting the outlook for the US economy.
- JOLTs Job Openings: This one reflects the demand for labor, and a reduction signifies the labor market is slowing down and not supporting the dollar so much.
Eurozone
- Eurozone Inflation (Flash Estimates): ECB policy relies on inflation data; high inflation could provide support for the Euro, reinforcing the need for restrictive policy.
- Country-level Inflation Data: This indicates how prices evolve across the bigger European economies and help shape Euro sentiment.
Central Bank Communication
- Federal Reserve Speeches: Market expectations can change according to comments from Fed officials about interest rates and policy change timings.
- ECB Speeches: ECB policymaker comments can also provide some clues on inflation and the direction of poliy in the future. This can influence the Euro.
Risk Considerations for EUR/USD This Week
The following elements may cause fluctuations in EUR/USD:
Macroeconomic data surprises remain the main source of risk, especially the Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Central bank communication may also alter expectations for interest rate changes.
Global risk sentiment is still a factor, as USD generally gains when risk appetite diminishes.
Last but not least, technical breakouts are always subject to monitoring.
Any firm descent outside the 1.1450–1.1600 range could lead to more pronounced directional momentum.
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