EURUSD Forecast for the Week of 9th March 2026
BY TIOmarkets
|March 9, 2026EURUSD Market Overview
EUR/USD begins the week of 9th March 2026 trading near 1.1550, positioned close to the lower boundary of the recent multi-month range.
The pair has corrected from the January highs near 1.2000–1.2100, entering a consolidation phase after the strong rally that began at the start of 2025.
Despite the pullback from the recent highs, the broader bullish trend remains intact. The current movement appears to be a technical correction within a larger upward trend, for the time being.
Short-term volatility increased recently due to mixed US macroeconomic data and slightly stronger eurozone inflation.
Key developments influencing the market include:
- Strong US activity indicators, particularly in the services sector
- Weak Non-Farm Payrolls, indicating potential labor market softening
- Eurozone inflation slightly above expectations
These conflicting signals are currently producing a range bound market structure, with traders reassessing expectations for both Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policy.
For now, EUR/USD remains inside a short-term consolidation range, waiting for new macroeconomic catalysts.
Technical Analysis for EURUSD
Current Market Structure
On the weekly chart, EUR/USD continues to display a bullish macro structure, although short-term momentum has weakened.
The correction from the 1.2000 area toward 1.1600 represents a typical retracement within a broader uptrend.
In the short term, price action has developed a slightly bearish bias, as the pair has been forming lower highs since January.
Moving Averages
The moving average structure supports the idea of a temporary pullback.
- 20-week MA: near 1.1700 (price currently below)
- 50-week MA: near 1.1500
- 200-week MA: near 1.1100
This configuration suggests a short-term correction inside a longer-term bullish trend.
The 50-week MA near 1.1500 remains a key technical reference for the medium-term structure.
Momentum Indicators
Momentum indicators are in a neutral position.
RSI (weekly) is hovering near 50, indicating balanced market conditions.
Meanwhile, MACD remains positive, although the histogram shows slowing momentum.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
The following technical levels may play an important role this week.
Resistance levels
- 1.1700 – primary resistance and location of the 20-week moving average
- 1.1750 – secondary resistance within the consolidation range
- 1.1800 – major psychological resistance
- 1.1900 – upper resistance zone
Support levels
- 1.1600 – short-term pivot level
- 1.1550 – key support within the current range
- 1.1500 – psychological level and medium-term support
- 1.1450 – macro structural support
As long as the pair remains between 1.1550 and 1.1700, the market may continue to trade in range conditions.
Bullish Scenario
A bullish scenario could develop if EUR/USD stabilizes above the 1.1600 pivot and begins building upward momentum.
A break above 1.1700 would represent the first technical signal of renewed bullish pressure.
If this level is cleared, the pair could move toward:
- 1.1750
- 1.1800
This scenario could be supported by continued weakness in US labor market indicators or increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more accommodative policy stance.
Additionally, persistent inflation in the eurozone could reinforce the view that the ECB may keep interest rates higher for longer, which may provide further support to the euro. In this environment, EUR/USD could gradually move toward the upper boundary of the recent range.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish scenario could potentially gain traction if EUR/USD fails to hold the 1.1470 level and breaks below it.
Such a move could trigger a deeper correction toward:
- 1.1200
This scenario may occur if US economic data continues to show resilience, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could delay potential rate cuts.
Stronger economic indicators from the United States could strengthen the US dollar and increase downward pressure on EUR/USD. Periods of global risk aversion may also favor the US dollar due to its safe-haven status, which could further weigh on the pair.
EURUSD Fundamental Drivers
Several macroeconomic factors are currently shaping the outlook for EUR/USD.
United States Economic Data
Recent US economic releases have produced mixed signals.
On one hand, ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services data remained strong, indicating that business activity in key sectors continues to expand.
The services sector, which represents a large share of the US economy, remains particularly resilient.
On the other hand, the latest Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a decline in employment, while the unemployment rate increased to around 4.4%. These developments suggest that the labor market may be beginning to soften, even though other parts of the economy remain stable.
Retail sales also declined slightly, although the result was better than expected.
Federal Reserve Expectations
Weakness in employment data has led to increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve could eventually adopt a more accommodative stance if economic conditions slow further. Markets often interpret deteriorating labor market conditions as a precursor to potential monetary easing.
If expectations of future rate cuts increase, the US dollar could face medium-term pressure.
Eurozone Inflation
In the euro area, inflation has recently exceeded expectations, reaching approximately 1.9%. Although inflation remains close to the ECB’s target, persistent price pressures may encourage the European Central Bank to maintain restrictive policy for longer.
If the ECB maintains higher rates while the Federal Reserve moves toward easing, the resulting policy divergence could support EUR/USD over time.
This Week's EURUSD High Impact Events
Several economic developments during the week could influence EUR/USD volatility. Market participants will closely monitor the following indicators for signals about the economic outlook and potential central bank policy changes.
United States
- US Inflation Data (CPI related indicators)
Higher-than-expected inflation could support the US dollar, as it may reduce expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. A softer inflation reading could weaken the dollar and support EUR/USD. - US Labor Market Indicators
Additional employment data may help clarify whether the recent weak Non-Farm Payrolls report signals a broader slowdown. Stronger labor data may support the USD, while further weakness could increase expectations of a more accommodative Fed. - US Economic Activity Indicators
Indicators measuring business activity and consumer demand may influence expectations about the strength of the US economy. Strong readings may reinforce dollar strength, while weaker data could pressure the USD.
Eurozone
- Eurozone Inflation Data
Inflation readings remain critical for European Central Bank policy expectations. Higher inflation could reinforce expectations that the ECB may keep interest rates elevated, potentially supporting the euro. - Eurozone Economic Activity Indicators
Surveys and economic data reflecting growth conditions in the euro area may influence sentiment toward the euro. Stronger data may support EUR/USD, while weaker indicators could weigh on the currency.
Central Bank Communication
- Federal Reserve and ECB speeches
Comments from policymakers may influence market expectations regarding interest rates. Any signals about future policy direction could trigger volatility in EUR/USD.
Risk Considerations for EURUSD This Week
Several factors could generate volatility in EUR/USD.
Macroeconomic data surprises remain one of the most significant risks. Unexpected results in economic releases may quickly shift expectations regarding monetary policy.
Central bank communication also represents a major driver. Comments from Federal Reserve or European Central Bank officials may influence market expectations about interest rates.
Global risk sentiment is another factor. During periods of financial uncertainty, the US dollar often benefits from safe-haven demand.
Finally, traders will closely watch for technical breakouts.
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