USD/JPY Forecast for the Week of 30th March 2026
BY TIOmarkets
|March 30, 2026USD/JPY Market Overview
The USD/JPY pair is starting the week of March 30–April 3, 2026,at around 159.20, almost touching the 160 psychological level that remains a very important turning point for traders and decision-makers.
After the March rally, the pair has managed to maintain its bullish structure with strong momentum throughout, thanks mainly to the ongoing interest rate differential between the US and Japan as well as the steady inflow of carry trades.
At the same time, USD/JPY seems to be stabilizing as it has failed to push above the 160 area convincingly. This development potentially indicates that the market is changing from a strong trending phase to a sideways or correcting phase.
Even though there is a pause in the movement, the main trend is still very much positive. The pair is still trading in a long-term bullish pattern with the latest activity showing more of a positioning phase than a fundamental change in trend.
In the near future, volatility on a short-term basis may rise due to markets moving to a phase driven by data releases, especially focusing on US economic figures.
Some of the key market-moving developments are:
- The US labor market is expected to be the focus of attention (NFP week)
- US Treasury yields at high levels continue to provide support
- Ongoing divergence in policy between Fed and BoJ
- Heightened risk of intervention near the 160 level
Currently, these factors are building a strong yet very fragile bull structure with traders being more wary at the higher levels.
For the time being, USD/JPY is staying close to the upper limit of its range and will be looking for a macroeconomic catalyst before making a directional move.
Technical Analysis for USD/JPY
Current Market Structure
On a weekly basis, the USD/JPY pair is still exhibiting a strong bullish macro trend with the price continuously making a series of higher highs and higher lows.
The area around 160 where the pair has been building a base is nothing but a hiatus in the course of this long ascending trend.
Near-term, there are indications of momentum exhaustion, as the pair has had difficulties in pushing the price up even though the macro fundamentals were rather supportive.
Besides that, no significant supports have been broken yet, meaning the overall bullish framework has not been compromised.
Moving Averages
The set-up of the moving averages is still favoring a bullish outlook.
- 20-period MA: Around 156.00
- 50-period MA: Around 153.00
- 100-period MA: Around 150.40
- 200-period MA: Around 144.10
Currently, the price is still significantly higher than all these averages, showing a strong alignment of the trend.
The 155.00, 153.00 zone is still the critical support for the existing structure.
Momentum Indicators
Latest momentum measurements indicate a neutral-to-bullish environment with early signs of slowing momentum.
RSI is still high above 60 demonstrating strong upside momentum, but it is not yet showing an overbought condition. The MACD signal is also positive keeping the door open for further movement in the current direction.
At the same time, the fact that the oscillators are not far from their peak values is a strong hint that the market may be in the late-stage trend phase.
On balance, momentum is on the side of the bullish trend, however, the force behind the moves is diminishing.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Here are the important levels from the technical point of view for the upcoming week.
Resistance Levels
- 160.00: Psychological resistance
- 160.50: Immediate resistance
- 163.80: Next upside target
- 166.20: Extended resistance
Support Levels
- 158.50: Short-term support
- 155.50: Key support zone
- 153.00: Trend support
- 150.00: Major structural support
Our view is that USD/JPY will continue to trade above 155.50, maintaining the bullish structural pattern.
Bullish Scenario
If the pair finds the strength to remain above 158.50 and gradually crosses the 160.00 mark, a bullish scenario may be in the works for USD/JPY.
Breaking above 160.50 would be the confirmation signal, opening up the potential for:
- 163.80
- 166.20
Such a scenario would be the result of a combination of strong economic data from the US, including a powerful Non-Farm Payrolls report, which could lead to higher US yields.
Meanwhile, further widening of the policy gap between the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan would continue to make the bull picture more compelling.
Bearish Scenario
A bearish scenario can only be triggered if USD/JPY drops back from the resistance zone and closes below 158.50.
As a result, it may retrace to:
- 155.50
- 153.00
This scenario gets triggered if the US data disappoints and results in a drop in Treasury yields.
In addition, any sign of Japanese intervention or strong verbal warnings could cause the pair to plummet sharply.
Even then, the overall trend will probably remain bullish as long as the price is trading above 153.00.
USD/JPY Fundamental Drivers
Below are some macroeconomic factors which will determine the USD/JPY direction for this week.
United States Economic Data
The US economic indicators will be the primary focus this week. USD/JPY is very sensitive to US yields, which in turn are greatly influenced by the release of economic data.
Latest data points hint at a resilient US economy, especially in the services sector. That said, the labor market dynamics have been mixed, which has added some uncertainty regarding the pace of employment growth.
This week’s data — especially Non-Farm Payrolls, ISM indicators, and retail sales — will be critical in determining the direction of US yields, which remain the primary driver for USD/JPY.
Positive economic data will help the dollar while negative data could lead to its pullback.
Federal Reserve Expectations
The market is currently contemplating the timing and size of possible interest rate cuts.
Fed officials emphasize being guided by data, especially concerning inflation and the labor market.
If the economic data confirms the robustness of the economy and employment, then the expectation of rate cuts will likely be deferred, thereby benefiting USD.
On the other hand, a weaker economic situation, especially one that is visibly reflected in employment, might cause the Fed to be perceived as easing, thereby exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
Bank of Japan Policy
The Bank of Japan continues to keep its monetary policy very accommodative, with interest rates being kept at very low levels relative to other major central banks around the world.
This is a structural element that continues to favor USD/JPY.
Nevertheless, there are still concerns over:
- Possible normalization of policy
- Intervention signals
- These risks become very significant at the proximity of the 160 level.
Policy Divergence
Monetary policy divergence is still playing a major role in pushing USD/JPY.
The Federal Reserve is getting the benefit of the doubt from the stand of the economy showing signs of relative strength, while the Bank of Japan keeps the accommodative mode and conditions.
This pair of circumstances is still giving reason for the USD to be the stronger one in the USD/JPY pair, hence, supporting the uplifting trend.
This Week's USD/JPY High Impact Events
Some of the economic releases may have an impact on USD/JPY and cause some volatility during the week.
United States
- Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): The most important labor market indicator. Strong job creation may support USD/JPY via higher yields.
- UnemploymentRate: Provides confirmation of labor market strength.
- ISMManufacturingPMI: Measures industrial activity and economic expansion.
- ISMServicesPMI: A key indicator of the largest sector of the US economy.
- RetailSales: Reflects consumer spending and demand conditions.
- JOLTsJobOpenings: Indicates labor demand trends.
Japan
- TankanManufacturingIndex: Provides insight into business sentiment and economic conditions.
Central Bank Communication
- Federal Reserve speeches
- Bank of Japan commentary and intervention signals
Risk Considerations for USD/JPY This Week
A number of factors have the potential to create moves in the pair that might be larger than the recent average moves.
Macroeconomic data surprises will continue to be the number one risk, especially the Non-Farm Payrolls release.
Treasury yield volatility is a further main driver, due to the strong correlation with USD/JPY.
Intervention risk from the Japanese authorities remains somewhat high near the 160 level.
Lastly, technical breakouts will be under close scrutiny.
Any decisive trading outside the 158.50–160.50 range will probably be followed by very strong momentum.
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