Weekly market analysis from 11th November 2024

This week brings a variety of impactful economic data releases and central bank statements that could influence currency movements across the globe.

Starting on Monday, attention will be on New Zealand's Inflation Expectations q/q, forecast to rise slightly to 2.12% from 2.03%. Any unexpected changes here could impact the NZD as inflation expectations drive central bank policy considerations.

On Tuesday, the UK will release its Claimant Count Change, expected to show an increase to 30.5K from the previous 27.9K, which might signal softening in the UK labor market and potentially weigh on the GBP if jobless claims exceed expectations.

Wednesday will be pivotal for both Australia and the US. Australia’s Wage Price Index q/q is forecast to tick up to 0.9% from 0.8%, with stronger wage growth possibly bolstering the AUD. In the US, inflation data will take center stage, with Core CPI m/m and CPI y/y both anticipated to hold steady at 0.3% and 2.4% respectively. If inflation surprises to the upside, it could reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy, affecting the USD.

Thursday shifts back to Australia with RBA Governor Bullock speaking, followed by Employment Change and Unemployment Rate releases, where analysts expect a slight decline in job creation to 25.2K from 64.1K while the unemployment rate holds at 4.1%. In the US, Core PPI and PPI m/m figures are due, along with Unemployment Claims expected to rise to 221K, and Fed Chair Powell’s speech, which could offer insight into future policy moves. Later, BOE Governor Bailey will address the economic outlook, adding further potential GBP volatility.

The week wraps up on Friday with the UK’s GDP m/m report, projected to remain steady at 0.2%, and in the US, Core Retail Sales m/m is expected to cool slightly to 0.2% from 0.5%, with Retail Sales m/m also slowing to 0.3%. These figures may indicate whether US consumer spending remains resilient amid economic pressures, potentially influencing USD momentum.

Here are 3 markets to watch this week

All technical analysis is provided by Trading Central.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD has been trading above a key pivot point level at 1.2610, which has held up well amid recent market volatility. The weekly chart appears bullish, suggesting that the pair could be setting up for a potential move higher. If buying interest remains above this pivot point, GBP/USD may rise towards initial targets at 1.3043 and extend up to 1.3260. However, should the market fail to sustain levels above 1.2610, downside momentum could push prices lower, with targets at 1.2450 and possibly 1.2300. Notably, the RSI indicator lacks strong downward momentum, which may support a bullish scenario as long as GBP/USD holds above the key support level at 1.2610.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD is testing resistance near the key pivot level at 0.6710, with a potential bearish outlook on the horizon. If the pair remains below this level, we may see further downside movement toward targets at 0.6490 and potentially extending to 0.6360. A break below 0.6490 would likely confirm this bearish scenario, adding downward pressure towards 0.6360. Conversely, if AUD/USD finds buying support and rises above 0.6710, we could see an upside reversal, with targets at 0.6800 and further extension to 0.6940. Current technical indicators suggest a break below 0.6490 may accelerate bearish momentum.

Gold

Gold has established a support base at the 2600.00 pivot level, creating an opportunity for a potential bullish move. With the price holding above this key level, we may see further upside toward targets at 2790.00, potentially extending to 2870.00 if upward momentum continues. This bullish scenario remains valid as long as the price stays above the 2600.00 pivot. However, if Gold dips below 2600.00, it may see a downside move, with support targets at 2525.00 and possibly down to 2450.00. The formation of a support base at 2600.00 suggests temporary stabilization, but the next direction depends on the market's ability to hold this level.

This weeks high impact market events

The following economic events and data releases have the potential to cause considerable price movements, thereby offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed and leverage our economic calendar to access real-time data and analysis as these key events unfold.

Time (GMT +3)

Monday 11th November

Tuesday 12th November

Wednesday 13th November

Thursday 14th November

Friday 15th November

How will you trade the markets this week?

Risk disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Never deposit more than you are prepared to lose. Professional client’s losses can exceed their deposit. Please see our risk warning policy and seek independent professional advice if you do not fully understand. This information is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by residents of certain countries/jurisdictions including, but not limited to, USA & Countries included in the OFAC sanction list. The Company holds the right to alter the aforementioned list of countries at its own discretion.

TIOmarkets offers an exclusively execution-only service. The views expressed are for information purposes only. None of the content provided constitutes any form of investment advice. The comments are made available purely for educational and marketing purposes and do NOT constitute advice or investment recommendation (and should not be considered as such) and do not in any way constitute an invitation to acquire any financial instrument or product. TIOmarkets and its affiliates and consultants are not liable for any damages that may be caused by individual comments or statements by TIOmarkets analysis and assumes no liability with respect to the completeness and correctness of the content presented. The investor is solely responsible for the risk of his/her investment decisions. The analyses and comments presented do not include any consideration of your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. The content has not been prepared in accordance with any legal requirements for financial analysis and must, therefore, be viewed by the reader as marketing information. TIOmarkets prohibits duplication or publication without explicit approval.

Join us on social media

TIO Staff

Behind every blog post lies the combined experience of the people working at TIOmarkets. We are a team of dedicated industry professionals and financial markets enthusiasts committed to providing you with trading education and financial markets commentary. Our goal is to help empower you with the knowledge you need to trade in the markets effectively.

Related Posts

Analysis

EUR/GBP may fall to 0.8022 - 0.8106

ST: the downside prevails as long as 0.8397 is resistance Our pivot point stands at 0.8397. Our preference The downside prevails as long as 0.8397 is resistance. Alternative scenario Abo...

Analysis

USD/JPY may rise 43 - 83 pips

Intraday: continuation of the rebound. Pivot 152.90 Our preference Long positions above 152.90 with targets at 154.00 & 154.40 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 152.90 look for f...

Analysis

Silver may fall to 31.00 - 31.23

Intraday: towards 31.00. Pivot 31.95 Our preference Short positions below 31.95 with targets at 31.23 & 31.00 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 31.95 look for further upside with...

Analysis

USD/CAD may fall 38 - 68 pips

Intraday: under pressure. Pivot 1.3950 Our preference Short positions below 1.3950 with targets at 1.3855 & 1.3825 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 1.3950 look for further upsid...