Weekly market analysis from 16th December
BY TIO Staff
|December 16, 2024As we approach the final trading weeks of the year, the financial markets are set to witness a flurry of economic data releases and pivotal central bank decisions. The week kicks off on Monday with a series of flash PMI figures from Europe, the UK, and the US, shedding light on the health of the manufacturing and services sectors. The Bank of Canada Governor's speech later in the day could also offer insights into future monetary policy directions.
Tuesday brings a focus on inflation and employment data, with the UK’s Claimant Count Change and Canada’s CPI figures providing clues about the state of their respective economies. Meanwhile, in the US, retail sales data is expected to highlight consumer spending trends, with both Core and Headline Retail Sales forecast to improve from previous levels.
Midweek, market attention shifts to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and updated economic projections. The Federal Funds Rate is forecasted to reduce to 4.50%, down from the previous 4.75%. Traders will closely scrutinize the FOMC statement and press conference for clues on future policy direction. New Zealand's GDP release and the UK’s inflation print will also be key data points to watch.
On Thursday, the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decisions and the UK’s Official Bank rate take center stage, although both are expected to remain unchanged. The US GDP final estimate and weekly unemployment claims will also be released. US unemployment claims are the only data expected to tick up slightly, but traders should remain vigilant for any surprises.
The week concludes with retail sales data from the UK and Canada, along with the US Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. These figures will cap off a week rich in economic data and with these significant events on the horizon, they will set the tone for market dynamics heading into 2025.
Here are 3 markets to watch this week
All technical analysis is provided by Trading Central
USD/CAD
If the price remains above the pivot point at 1.3820, USD/CAD could potentially rise to the 1.4345 or 1.4660 range. Alternatively, if the price breaks below the pivot point at 1.3820, there could be potential downside with targets at 1.3750 and 1.3600. The RSI is bullish and potentially indicates an oversold market condition or further potential for upside.
USD/JPY
If the price remains below the pivot point at 156.75, USD/JPY could potentially fall to the 148.60 or 146.00 range. Alternatively, if the price breaks above the pivot point at 156.75, there could be potential upside with targets at 160.25 and 161.75. The RSI lacks momentum and is indicating a neutral bias at the 50 level or uncertainty in the trend.
GBP/USD
If the price remains below the pivot point at 1.3043, GBP/USD could potentially fall to the 1.2470 or 1.2300 range. Alternatively, if the price breaks above the pivot point at 1.3043, there could be potential upside with targets at 1.3260 and 1.3430. The RSI is indicating a minor bearish bias, slightly below the 50% level, indicating the potential for further bearish momentum.
This week's high impact market events
The following economic events and data releases have the potential to cause considerable price movements, thereby offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed and leverage our economic calendar to access real-time data and analysis as these key events unfold.
Time (GMT +3)
Monday 16th December
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 10:15 AM | EUR | French Flash Manufacturing PMI |
| EUR | French Flash Services PMI | |
| 10:30 AM | EUR | German Flash Manufacturing PMI |
| EUR | German Flash Services PMI | |
| 11:30 AM | GBP | Flash Manufacturing PMI |
| GBP | Flash Services PMI | |
| 4:45 PM | USD | Flash Manufacturing PMI |
| USD | Flash Services PMI | |
| 10:20 PM | CAD | BOC Gov Macklem Speaks |
Tuesday 17th December
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 9:00 AM | GBP | Claimant Count Change |
| 3:30 PM | CAD | CPI m/m |
| CAD | Median CPI y/y | |
| CAD | Trimmed CPI y/y | |
| USD | Core Retail Sales m/m | |
| USD | Retail Sales m/m |
Wednesday 18th December
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 9:00 AM | GBP | CPI y/y |
| 9:00 PM | USD | Federal Funds Rate |
| USD | FOMC Economic Projections | |
| USD | FOMC Statement | |
| 9:30 PM | USD | FOMC Press Conference |
| 11:45 PM | NZD | GDP q/q |
Thursday 19th December
| Time | Currency | Event |
| Tentative | JPY | BOJ Policy Rate |
| Tentative | JPY | Monetary Policy Statement |
| Tentative | JPY | BOJ Press Conference |
| 2:00 PM | GBP | Monetary Policy Summary |
| GBP | MPC Official Bank Rate Votes | |
| GBP | Official Bank Rate | |
| 3:30 PM | USD | Final GDP q/q |
| USD | Unemployment Claims |
Friday 20th December
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 9:00 AM | GBP | Retail Sales m/m |
| 3:30 PM | CAD | Core Retail Sales m/m |
| CAD | Retail Sales m/m | |
| USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m |
How will you trade the markets this week?
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