EUR/USD Market Analysis: Key Levels for September
BY Eleni Antoniou
|August 31, 2026EUR/USD begins the week near 1.1585 after falling back from the August high near 1.1700. The pair enters a data-heavy period with U.S. labour-market releases and inflation data likely to shape rate expectations, while the European Central Bank remains focused on the inflation effects of volatile energy prices.
EUR/USD Market overview
The EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1585, on 31 August. EUR/USD traded between 1.1502 and 1.1711 during August, then slipped sharply on 28 August after testing the upper part of that range. The late-August close leaves the pair near the middle of its August range rather than at a confirmed trend extreme.
The broader summer path has been volatile, the pair fell to 1.1325 in late June, recovered through July and reached 1.1711 in August. That rebound shows that euro demand can return quickly when the dollar softens, but the failure to hold above 1.1650–1.1711 keeps the immediate technical picture balanced.
Latest market news
The ECB kept its three key rates unchanged on 23 July, leaving the deposit facility at 2.25%. Its communication stressed high uncertainty around energy prices and a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. The subsequent account of that meeting noted that the full inflationary effect of the energy shock had yet to play out, so traders may remain sensitive to energy and inflation news.
The Federal Reserve also held policy steady on 29 July, maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%. The statement described inflation as elevated and showed three dissenters who preferred a 25-basis-point increase. That combination preserves a material nominal rate advantage for the dollar and leaves EUR/USD sensitive to any evidence that U.S. inflation is re-accelerating or that the labour market is firmer than expected.
EUR/USD technical analysis
On the daily timeframe, the July-to-August recovery lifted EUR/USD from the 1.1354 area into 1.1710. The subsequent pullback means 1.1700 is now the first significant resistance zone. A sustained daily recovery through this area would improve the short-term structure.
Initial support sits around 1.1575, an area repeatedly traded in mid-August and revisited on 28 August. The more important August support area is around 1.1525. Below that, 1.1475 is a secondary support zone formed by late-June and July price action.
Fundamental and macro drivers
The rate backdrop remains dollar-supportive in nominal terms: the Fed’s 3.50%–3.75% target range is above the ECB’s 2.25% deposit rate. However, the effect on EUR/USD depends on how markets revise the expected path from here, not only on the current gap. Softer U.S. data could reduce expectations for tighter policy and weigh on the dollar; persistent inflation pressure or resilient activity could have the opposite effect.
Energy prices are a two-sided euro driver. Higher prices can add to euro-area inflation risk and complicate the ECB’s outlook, but they can also weigh on the region’s terms of trade and growth. In the United States, the Fed has explicitly cited energy-related supply shocks as part of the inflation challenge. This makes commodity headlines and broader risk sentiment meaningful inputs for EUR/USD in addition to the scheduled data.
Bullish scenario: EUR/USD price forecast
A bullish scenario may gain support if incoming U.S. labour data, wage figures or inflation data ease enough to reduce expectations for further Fed tightening, while risk sentiment remains orderly. Technically, a daily close back above 1.1700 would be the first sign that the late-August drop is being absorbed. A sustained break of 1.1700 could expose the 1.1775 area. While a return below 1.1575 could potentially weaken this bullish scenario case.
Bearish scenario: EUR/USD price forecast
A bearish scenario may strengthen if U.S. data reinforce the view that inflation is sticky or the labour market is resilient enough to keep policy restrictive, especially if energy-related inflation concerns intensify. Failure to reclaim 1.1700 followed by a decisive move below 1.1475 and the 50-day moving average, would increase the chance of a test of the June-July lows. A sustained recovery or a hold above 1.1475 would invalidate the immediate bearish technical setup.
Key levels and catalysts to watch
- Support: 1.1575, 1.1525, 1.1475 and the 50-day moving average
- Resistance: 1.1700, 1.1775, then 1.1850.
- 1 September: U.S. JOLTS for July, which can affect labour-market and rate expectations.
- 4 September: U.S. Employment Situation for August at 08:30 ET.
- 10–11 September: U.S. PPI and CPI for August. Inflation surprises may have an outsized impact on the dollar.
- 15–16 September: next scheduled FOMC meeting, including projections.
Conclusion
EUR/USD is trading near 1.1590 after an August advance stalled around 1.1700. The pair has room for either a rebound toward the August high or a deeper pullback toward 1.1525, and the outcome may depend on how the next U.S. labour and inflation data change the perceived Fed path. For the coming one to two weeks, the 1.1475–1.1700 range is the immediate focus: a break and daily hold outside it would carry more signal than movement inside it.
Risk disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Never deposit more than you are prepared to lose. Professional client’s losses can exceed their deposit. Please see our risk warning policy and seek independent professional advice if you do not fully understand. This information is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by residents of certain countries/jurisdictions including, but not limited to, USA & Countries included in the OFAC sanction list. The Company holds the right to alter the aforementioned list of countries at its own discretion.
TIOmarkets offers an exclusively execution-only service. The views expressed are for information purposes only. None of the content provided constitutes any form of investment advice. The comments are made available purely for educational and marketing purposes and do NOT constitute advice or investment recommendation (and should not be considered as such) and do not in any way constitute an invitation to acquire any financial instrument or product. TIOmarkets and its affiliates and consultants are not liable for any damages that may be caused by individual comments or statements by TIOmarkets analysis and assumes no liability with respect to the completeness and correctness of the content presented. The investor is solely responsible for the risk of his/her investment decisions. The analyses and comments presented do not include any consideration of your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. The content has not been prepared in accordance with any legal requirements for financial analysis and must, therefore, be viewed by the reader as marketing information. TIOmarkets prohibits duplication or publication without explicit approval.
Join us on social media
Authors BIO
Eleni is a financial markets enthusiast contributing to content covering forex, indices, commodities, and global market developments. She is passionate about researching market-related topics and helping make financial information more accessible to traders.
