EUR/USD Market Analysis: Fed Decision in Focus
BY Eleni Antoniou
|September 14, 2026EUR/USD begins the week near 1.1600 after easing from a 1.1654 intraday high on 9 September. The pair is caught between a newly more hawkish European Central Bank and a Federal Reserve decision on 16 September.
EUR/USD Market overview
EUR/USD traded in a comparatively narrow 125 pip range from 1 to 11 September, with Friday closing near 1.1600. The pair briefly tested the lower boundary of the range after the ECB meeting, but failed to break below 1.1575, until today. That leaves the immediate technical picture neutral-to-bearish rather than decisively bearish: price is now trading below the early-September low, and below the late August and early September swing high. A policy surprise from the Fed this week could decide whether the next sustained move is toward the 1.1650 area or a continuation lower.
Latest market news for EUR/USD
On 10 September, the ECB raised its three key rates by 25 basis points, lifting the deposit facility rate to 2.50% effective 16 September. The Governing Council said the Middle East conflict continues to create inflation pressure and projected headline inflation at 3.0% in 2026. The decision gives the euro a firmer rate backdrop, though the ECB also stressed unusually high uncertainty. Across the Atlantic, US August CPI was released on 11 September and the FOMC meets on 15-16 September. The policy statement, projections and press conference could drive sharp USD repricing, particularly after the latest inflation data kept attention on price pressure.
EUR/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows a failed push beyond 1.1650, and a break of 1.1575, the first short-term resistance zones. A move above these areas would be a clearer indication that the price may have momentum to push higher. Above this, 1.1700 is the next approximate resistance zone, where late-August price action stalled. On the downside, 1.1525 is possibly the next immediate support area, defined by the early and mid-September lows. A sustained break below 1.1525 and the 50-day moving average, could expose 1.14.75, the top of the July base. Momentum is mixed: the pair is still trading within a broader price range since early 2025.
Fundamental and macro drivers
The key macro comparison is the expected path of euro-area and US policy rates rather than the ECB move in isolation. The ECB has just tightened policy against an energy-driven inflation backdrop, while its September baseline sees euro-area growth of 0.9% for 2026. The Fed decision arrives before the pair has established a new technical trend. A more restrictive-than-expected US message could support US yields and the dollar; a less hawkish outcome, or guidance that lowers the expected US policy path, could allow the ECB's recent move to carry more weight for EUR/USD. Energy-market developments remain a two-sided risk because they can worsen European growth prospects even as they sustain inflation.
Bullish scenario: EUR/USD price forecast
A bullish EUR/USD scenario may gain support if the Fed delivers less tightening than markets expect, or if its projections and guidance lower the expected US rate path. A move above 1.1650, and 1.1700, would improve the technical bullish case over the following one to two weeks. For this scenario to remain credible, the pair would ideally hold above the 50-day moving average, and continue trending higher. If price remains below 1.1575 and continues to crate short-term lower lows and lower highs, this would weaken the near-term bullish scenario.
Bearish scenario: EUR/USD price forecast
A bearish EUR/USD scenario may gain support if the Fed signals additional tightening or if US yields rise after the decision. If 1.1575 acts as resistance, this could indicate that the early-September range has credibly broken lower and could put 1.1525 in focus. Renewed energy-price stress that weighs on euro-area growth, or a cautious ECB message after the rate increase, would add to downside risk. A recovery above 1.1650, could potentially invalidate the bearish scenario, especially if price continues to push higher towards 1.1650.
Key levels and catalysts to watch
- Support: 1.1525, 1.1475, then 1.1365
- Resistance: 1.1575, 1.1650, then 1.1700
Catalysts
- 16 September: Federal Reserve policy decision, projections and press conference.
- 17 September: Eurostat release of detailed August HICP data for the euro area.
- Energy-price developments and associated risk sentiment remain important two-sided risks for the euro and dollar.
Conclusion
EUR/USD enters a high-event week after breaking out lower from its early-September range. The ECB's rate increase is supportive for the euro, but traders are waiting for the FOMC outcome this week. The 1.1525 support area and 1.1575 resistance zone provide the short term technical reference points to watch.
Risk disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Never deposit more than you are prepared to lose. Professional client’s losses can exceed their deposit. Please see our risk warning policy and seek independent professional advice if you do not fully understand. This information is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by residents of certain countries/jurisdictions including, but not limited to, USA & Countries included in the OFAC sanction list. The Company holds the right to alter the aforementioned list of countries at its own discretion.
TIOmarkets offers an exclusively execution-only service. The views expressed are for information purposes only. None of the content provided constitutes any form of investment advice. The comments are made available purely for educational and marketing purposes and do NOT constitute advice or investment recommendation (and should not be considered as such) and do not in any way constitute an invitation to acquire any financial instrument or product. TIOmarkets and its affiliates and consultants are not liable for any damages that may be caused by individual comments or statements by TIOmarkets analysis and assumes no liability with respect to the completeness and correctness of the content presented. The investor is solely responsible for the risk of his/her investment decisions. The analyses and comments presented do not include any consideration of your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. The content has not been prepared in accordance with any legal requirements for financial analysis and must, therefore, be viewed by the reader as marketing information. TIOmarkets prohibits duplication or publication without explicit approval.
Join us on social media
Authors BIO
Eleni is a financial markets enthusiast contributing to content covering forex, indices, commodities, and global market developments. She is passionate about researching market-related topics and helping make financial information more accessible to traders.
