Canada Jobs Report Preview: Will Jobs Rebound in October?
BY Ahmed Osama
|November 5, 2026Statistics Canada releases the October Canada jobs report at 13:30 UTC on Friday 6 November, at exactly the same time as the US jobs report. After two straight months of job losses, including a drop of 68,000 in September, forecasts point to a modest rebound, with the Canada unemployment rate expected to stay near 6.5%. Coming just over a week after the Bank of Canada raised rates for the first time since 2023, the report could set the tone for USD/CAD.
Canada jobs report in brief
- The Canada jobs report for October, known as the Labour Force Survey, is due at 13:30 UTC on Friday 6 November.
- Forecasts point to a gain of around 13,600 jobs after a loss of 68,000 in September.
- The Canada unemployment rate is expected to stay at 6.5%, its September level.
- The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.50% on 28 October, its first increase since July 2023, and said more rises could be needed.
- USD/CAD has slipped back below 1.4000 in early November after trading as high as 1.4300 in October.
What is the Canada jobs report and when is it released?
The Canada jobs report is published monthly by Statistics Canada as the Labour Force Survey. It shows how many jobs the Canadian economy added or lost, the Canada unemployment rate, the participation rate, and how fast wages are rising. Because these figures shape the Bank of Canada's interest rate decisions, the Canada jobs report is one of the most important releases for traders of the Canadian dollar.
The October Canada jobs report is due at 13:30 UTC on Friday 6 November, as shown on our economic calendar. That is the same moment as the US nonfarm payrolls report, which often makes the first move in USD/CAD especially fast.
What the forecasts show for the Canada jobs report October 2026
| Indicator | Forecast (October) | Previous (September) |
| Employment change | About +13,600 | −68,000 |
| Canada unemployment rate | 6.5% | 6.5% |
Forecasts vary by source and may change before the release.
In simple terms: forecasters expect a partial recovery after September's sharp drop, but not enough to erase the losses of the past two months. A result near the forecast would suggest the labour market is weak but not falling apart.
Why the September Canada jobs report was so weak
The September figures were a clear disappointment. Employment fell by 68,000, after a loss of about 42,000 in August, and the Canada unemployment rate rose to 6.5% from 6.4%. Almost all of the September decline came from the public sector, which lost around 70,000 jobs, mainly in education and health care and largely in Quebec. The labour force also shrank, which kept the unemployment rate from rising further.
That detail matters. Economists see the public-sector drop as unusual rather than a sign that private employers are cutting jobs on a large scale, which is one reason a partial rebound is expected in October. US tariffs, however, continue to weigh on trade-exposed industries.
Why this Canada jobs report matters for the Bank of Canada
The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by a quarter point to 2.50% on 28 October, its first increase since July 2023, as rising energy costs pushed inflation higher. It said further increases could be needed, but that it would take decisions one meeting at a time. The next decision is due on 9 December. Our Bank of Canada rate decision preview explains the background to that meeting.
The jobs data put the Bank in a difficult position. Inflation argues for keeping rates high or raising them further, while a weakening labour market argues for caution. A stronger Canada jobs report could keep a December rise in view, while another weak month could make the Bank more reluctant to tighten again.
How oil prices affect the Canadian dollar
Canada is one of the world's largest crude oil exporters, so oil prices have a strong influence on the Canadian dollar. Higher oil prices tend to support the currency by boosting export earnings, while lower prices can weigh on it.
Oil has fallen sharply in early November. Brent crude dropped from near $118 a barrel in late October to around $90 at the time of writing, after Iran signalled openness to peace talks and hopes grew for a diplomatic end to the conflict. Lower oil prices can ease inflation pressure, which matters for the Bank of Canada, but they can also reduce support for the Canadian dollar.
Four things to watch in the Canada jobs report
1. The employment change
The headline number of jobs added or lost is the first figure markets react to. A result far above or below the forecast range is likely to cause the biggest moves.
2. The Canada unemployment rate
A rise to 6.6% or above would suggest the labour market is weakening further, even if the headline jobs number looks acceptable.
3. Private versus public sector jobs
Gains led by private employers would be a more convincing sign of recovery than a simple bounce in public-sector jobs.
4. The US jobs report at the same time
Because both reports land at 13:30 UTC, USD/CAD reacts to the difference between them. Our NFP preview covers the US side.
How the Canada jobs report could move USD/CAD
USD/CAD shows how many Canadian dollars one US dollar buys, so a falling pair means a stronger Canadian dollar. The pair rallied from around 1.3760 in early September to the 1.4300 area in early October, then fell back to near 1.4000 in late October. After a brief bounce toward 1.4080, it slipped back below 1.4000 in early November as the US dollar weakened.
The interest rate gap matters too. The Federal Reserve held its rate at 3.75%–4.00% on 28 October, while the Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.50%, narrowing the difference between the two.
USD/CAD has been trading in a broad 1.3750–1.4300 range. Reference levels traders are watching:
- 1.4300: the October high area
- 1.4134: the mid-October breakdown area
- 1.3850: the first support area below the recent lows
- 1.3760: the early-September low area
A better-than-expected Canada jobs report could support the Canadian dollar and push USD/CAD toward 1.3850 and 1.3760. A worse-than-expected report could lift the pair toward 1.4134 and possibly 1.4300.
All levels are context markers, not entry or exit points, and should be checked against a live price feed.
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Three scenarios: better than expected, as expected or worse than expected
In this table, "better than expected" means more jobs and a lower unemployment rate than forecast, and "worse than expected" means fewer jobs or job losses and a higher unemployment rate. A better-than-expected Canada jobs report tends to support the Canadian dollar, which means a lower USD/CAD.
| Scenario | What it could look like | Possible market reaction | What could change the reading |
| Better than expected | Employment up by more than about 40,000, with the unemployment rate at 6.4% or lower | The Canadian dollar could strengthen as expectations of another Bank of Canada rise grow; USD/CAD could fall toward 1.3850–1.3760 | A stronger US jobs report at the same time, or gains driven only by the public sector |
| As expected | Employment roughly flat to up by about 40,000, with the unemployment rate at 6.5% | The first move may depend mostly on the US data; USD/CAD could stay within 1.3850–1.4134 | The details: private-sector hiring, full-time jobs and wages |
| Worse than expected | Another fall in employment, with the unemployment rate at 6.6% or higher | The Canadian dollar could weaken as expectations of further rises fade; USD/CAD could rise toward 1.4134–1.4300 | A weaker US jobs report at the same time, or a rebound in oil prices |
Scenario thresholds are editorial guideposts, not forecasts or trading recommendations.
A mixed result may create the hardest reaction
The most difficult outcome to read is a mixed one. For example, Canada could add jobs while the unemployment rate rises because more people start looking for work, or Canadian data could beat forecasts at the same moment as the US jobs report surprises even more. In those cases, the first move in USD/CAD may reverse quickly. Liquidity can thin around 13:30 UTC, which can widen spreads and cause slippage.
Key events to watch
- Friday 6 November, 13:30 UTC: Canada jobs report and US jobs report for October
- Mid-November: Canada's consumer price inflation data for October
- Friday 4 December, 13:30 UTC: Canada jobs report for November
- Wednesday 9 December: Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve rate decisions
Risks and uncertainties
The Labour Force Survey is based on a sample of households and can swing sharply from month to month, so one report rarely tells the full story. Oil prices remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, and a sharp move in crude could outweigh the jobs data for the Canadian dollar. Because the US jobs report is released at the same time, USD/CAD can move against the direction suggested by the Canadian figures alone.
Market direction is not mechanical. Positioning, liquidity and global risk sentiment can outweigh the usual relationship between economic data and currencies, and prices can gap or reverse rapidly around the release.
Conclusion
The October Canada jobs report is expected to show a modest rebound after two months of losses, with the Canada unemployment rate holding near 6.5%. With the Bank of Canada having just raised rates and inflation still a concern, the report could shape expectations for December. A better-than-expected result could support the Canadian dollar and weigh on USD/CAD, while another weak month could do the opposite. Because the US jobs report lands at the same moment, the difference between the two may matter most.
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Authors BIO
An experienced financial analyst and educator with over 8 years of expertise covering gold, forex, and global financial markets. Ahmed specializes in blending price action analysis with macroeconomic data to accurately interpret market movements, providing readers with comprehensive educational insights into trading and the financial world.
